Items of Interest HARVARD SAYS IT WILL GET WORSE BEFORE IT GETS BETTER The nation is in the throes of a housing downturn that is shaping up to be the worst in a generation, says the latest report from the university’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. While the falloff in housing starts, new home sales and existing home sales already rivals the worst downturns in the post World War II era, home price declines and mortgage defaults are the worst on records that date back to the 1960s and 1970s. "The slump in housing markets has not yet run its full course," concludes Center Director Nicolas P. Retsinas. "Mortgage rates have barely responded to the aggressive easing of the Federal Reserve, the supply of for-sale vacant units continues to grow and much tighter underwriting is locking many would-be homebuyers out of the market. With home prices falling in most metropolitan areas, homeowners are tightening their belts, remodeling less, and staying on the sidelines." The report observes that the number of homeowners paying more than half their income on housing rocketed from 6.5 million in 2001 to 8.8 million in 2006. Consequently, the number of homes entering foreclosure nearly doubled to 1.3 million in 2007 from about 660,000 in 2005. The report indicates that these high levels of foreclosures will continue to exert extreme downward pressure on prices, especially in low-income and minority areas, where riskier subprime loans are most heavily concentrated. This year’s report finds that demand for new homes has dropped well below projected long-run demand. House price deflation, tight credit and consumer concerns over the direction of the economy have kept buyers at bay and some households from forming, the authors say. If the economy slips into recession or job losses keep racking up, household growth and homeownership demand could fall even more, according to the report. Barring a prolonged period of serious economic decline, however, the report notes that the outlook for household growth is about 14.5 million over the next ten years. U.S. OFFICIALS SEE PROBLEMS PERSISTING IN HOUSING Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke publicly indicated that he believes the problems will persist into next year, reports the New York Times. And Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. said in a speech that the problems of the housing and financial markets might last longer than PMI FORESEES RISK OF LOWER PRICES AS TRENDING DOWN Risk continued to intensify in many of the metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) where home price growth had significantly exceeded historical norms during the housing boom but continued to decline in many other areas across the country, says PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. Its U.S. Market Risk Index ranks the nation's 50 largest MSAs according to the likelihood that home prices will be lower in two years. For a copy of complete report an appendix that provides data for all 381 U.S. MSAs, click here. The highest risk remains in Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. (a 95.5 percent probability), followed by Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, (92.2), and West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach (91.9). The areas with the lowest risk are in Fort Worth-Arlington, Dallas-Plano-Irving, and Pittsburgh, each at less than a 1 percent chance. The risk of lower prices in two years declined in 35 of the nation's 50 largest MSAs; among all 381 MSAs, 326 experienced a decline in risk. The index is based on first-quarter Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) data. EVEN THE NAR SAYS THE MARKET IS STILL IN THE WOODS The National Association of Realtors (NAR) clings to a forecast of modest near-term movement in existing-home sales, despite a decline in the Pending Home Sales Index, according to the advocacy group’s latest forecast. The May index fell 4.7 percent from April and remains 14.0 percent below one year earlier. Conceded Chief Economist Lawrence Yun: "The overall decline in contract signings suggests we are not out of the woods by any means. Some markets have seen a doubling in home sales from a year ago, while others are seeing contract signings cut in half. Price conditions vary tremendously, even within a locality, depending upon a neighborhood’s exposure to subprime loans." Existing-home sales are expected to grow from an annual pace of 5.01 million in the second quarter to 5.75 million in the fourth quarter, the NAR forecast said. For all of 2008, it added, existing-home sales should total 5.31 million, then increase 5.0 percent next year. "The speed at which home prices has declined in a few select markets is unprecedented, but the large price declines in those areas have enticed bargain hunters back into the market," Yun said. "Interestingly, there have been reports of multiple bidding after the large price cuts, so it is possible that most of the price declines have already occurred in those markets." The median price for previously owned homes is projected to fall 6.2 percent this year to $205,300, then rise by 4.3 percent in 2009 to $214,100. New-home sales are likely to fall 32.3 percent in 2008 and decline another 3.4 percent next year, Yun said, predicting that housing starts will fall 28.7 percent this year and another 9.0 percent next. The median new-home price is expected to decline 3.2 percent to $239,300 this year before rising 5.3 percent in 2009. A CROWD MAY ROAR FOR THE SMELL OF THIS PAINT That’s because the paint doesn’t smell. Containing few or no volatile organic compounds - VOCs - have become a fast-growing segment of the $21 billion paint and coatings market, the Wall Street Journal observes. Largely responsible for that new-paint smell, VOCs can contribute to smog as well as kidney and liver damage, respiratory and memory problems and other illnesses, particularly in children. Now, major manufacturers and smaller brands alike are loading shelves with water-based coatings that contain fewer or even no VOCs. Ace Hardware last fall introduced a zero-VOC paint called Mythic. In January, Benjamin Moore completed a national rollout of Aura, a low-VOC paint it says covers most surfaces in a single coat, and the company plans to introduce a zero-VOC formula early next year. Although many pros complained that low-VOC paints left brush streaks, required more coats and scuffed more easily, a 2007 study conducted by Missouri University of Science and Technology's coatings institute showed many low-VOC paints had performance characteristics similar to and in many cases better than their higher-VOC counterparts. COUCH POTATOES ARE DOING WITHOUT SO MANY COUCHES "It's not pretty out there," Britt Beemer, chairman of America's Research Group, a firm that studies consumer behavior, tells the Washington Post. Beemer's latest monthly Furniture Buying Index, which tracks consumers' shopping habits, reported the lowest demand for furniture since he began compiling the index in 1992. While many folks are buying entertainment units and desks, in most cases they come into a store on a mission, not just to fantasize. YOU’LL NEED PLENTY OF ELBOW GREASE FOR THIS PROJECT There's really no quick and simple way to deal with adhesive removal, but there are some methods that work better than others. In Inman News, Paul Bianchina’s best suggestion is a scraper - anything from a putty knife or drywall knife to one of the wider, razor-edge scrapers with replaceable blades that you can get from a retailer of flooring supplies. Hold the scraper at a low angle to the floor, push it into the adhesive and have a rag handy to remove the old adhesive as soon as it builds up on the blade. When you have removed the adhesive, you can clean up whatever residue is left using mineral spirits. Be sure to have adequate ventilation in the room, and follow all of the safety regulations on the can. SELLERS SHOULD SPRUCE UP THEIR BATHS, BUT NOT TOO MUCH Like kitchens, bathrooms are rooms that buyers scrutinize most closely when shopping for a house, real estate agents say, according to Newsday. And in today's buyer's market, sellers need to tread HIS NEW HOME IS "MAID" IN MANHATTAN Stage and movie actor Ralph Fiennes paid $2 million for a 1,220-square-foot condo unit in the Gansevoort building in Greenwich Village, reports the Real Deal. Nominated for an Academy Award for Schindler's List and The English Patient, the star of the movie cunningly mentioned in the headline bought unit 6B at 321 West 13th St. from interior designer Joseph Lembo, according to property records. The loft-style building in the meatpacking district was constructed about a century ago. LOVE IS LOST FOR HIS IDAHO HOME Seven-time Grand Slam singles winner Mats Wilander has listed his home in the Idaho resort area of Sun Valley for $8.5 million, according to the Wall Street Journal. The Swedish-born tennis champ and his wife Sonya, a former model, bought the roughly 80-acre parcel in the 1990s and built their main residence there in 1999. It's about a 20-minute drive southeast of Ketchum. The 10,500-square-foot main house, contemporary in style, has a large exercise room and a soundproofed music room; it comes with a guest house, caretaker's residence, lap pool and hot tub. But there's no tennis court: The couple wanted to create a retreat away from tennis for their four children. SHE’S ASKING $11 MILLION WITHOUT ONE STICK OF MAHOGANY Diana Ross is now looking to raise the price of her Sherry-Netherland hotel apartment, according to the New York Post. The newspaper quotes "sources" as saying that the Supremes diva is planning to renovate her seven-room residence and raise its price from $9 million to $11 million sometime after Labor Day. Included in the park-fronting full-floor apartment with views in all directions are three bedrooms, three full bathrooms, 29-foot living room, formal dining room, maid's room, high ceilings and a private elevator landing on one of the building's top floors. TWICE IS NICE FOR MALCOLM Tipping Point author Malcolm Gladwell, 44, has paid $1.5 million for a co-op apartment in a four-story West Village building, says the Real Deal. He bought unit 4 in the nearly 100-year-old red-brick townhouse at 23 Bank Street, according to property records. The Observer adds that the place is just a few blocks from his third-floor apartment in a similar building on Bethune Street. Gladwell is said to have become a fixture in the neighborhood, often spotted having lunch at Super Vegan on Jane Street. HE’S LIVING EASY AND DYING NOT AT ALL Actor Justin Long, best-known for his starring role in a series of Macintosh computer commercials, has purchased an apartment at the high-rise Blue luxury complex at 105 Norfolk St., on the Lower East Side, reports the Sun. The two-bedroom, two-bath apartment went for $2.4 million, according to the real estate Web site StreetEasy.com. Long will move into a 1,975-square-foot unit called "Tower 15," which features palm floors and floor-to-ceiling windows with views of the Manhattan skyline. The apartment, one of two floor-throughs, includes a combined living-dining area, walk-in closet, windowed study and a kitchen furnished with Boffi cabinetry and countertops. A tabloid fixture because of his relationship with the actress Drew Barrymore, he appeared last summer alongside Bruce Willis in the film "Live Free or Die Hard." IF YOU SAW THE BABE PLAY, YOU CAN PLAY WHERE HE LIVED One Jim Thompson has once again put on the market the penthouse in downtown St. Petersburg, Fla. where both Ruth and Lou Gehrig lived when they were in town for spring training with the New York Yankees from the late 1920s through the mid-1930s. According to Realtor magazine, the St. Petersburg Times quotes Thompson as saying that Gehrig owned the 1,420-sf penthouse in the Flori-de-Leon apartment building on Fourth Avenue and then sold it to the Babe. (Gehrig bought the unit next door because he wanted a place where he didn’t have to encounter fans, though how moving next door meets his requirement is not explained.) The Babe liked having an apartment that forced him to pass people when he was coming and going. Thompson is offering the two-bedroom, one-bath apartment for $275,000, having failed to sell it last year for $339,000. The building is limited to residents who are 55 and older. Thus the headline. HER CLOTHES GO IN A NY MINUTE, BUT NOT HER CO-OP Betsy Johnson has found a buyer for the downtown penthouse she put on the market late last year, reports New York magazine. The 1,660-square-foot two-bedroom, one-bath at 45 Fifth Avenue, awash in startling Johnson colors such as bright pink, is in contract after two price cuts. (It was originally going for $3.6 million.) Johnson is now ensconced in an East Eighties building off Madison Avenue where her daughter and grandchildren also live. THE FIRST SHOT IS FIRED IN CHARLIE RANGEL’S WAR Rep. Charles B. Rangel is enjoying four rent-stabilized apartments, including three adjacent units totaling $2,500 square feet on the 16th floor overlooking Upper Manhattan in a building owned by one of New York’s premier real estate developers, the New York Times discloses. The powerful Democrat who is chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee uses his fourth apartment, six floors below, as a campaign office, despite state and city regulations that require rent-stabilized apartments to be used as a primary residence. Rangel, who has a net worth of $566,000-1.2 million, according to Congressional disclosure records, paid a total rent of $3,894 monthly at Lenox Terrace, a 1,700-unit luxury development of six towers, with doormen, that is described in real estate publications as Harlem’s most prestigious address. The current market-rate rent for similar apartments in the building would total $7,465 to $8,125 a month, according to the Web site of the owner, the Olnick Organization. Rangel, 78, declined to answer questions during a telephone interview, saying that his housing was a private matter that did not affect his representation of his constituents. "Why should I help you embarrass me?" he said, before abruptly hanging up. HERE’S A TAX TIP APARTMENT DWELLERS OFTEN OVERLOOK If you live in a condominium, co-operative or other home that's part of a community association, upgrades to the common areas over the years can affect the amount of tax you owe when you sell, notes Benny L. Kass in the Washington Post. Although maintenance and repair items are not added to a property’s cost basis, capital improvements are legitimate items. If you live in a condo, co-op or other home, you could be eligible to increase your basis to reflect improvements to common areas according to your proportionate share of ownership. In that way, you can reduce your tax liability on the "profit" when you sell the property. THERE’S A NEW WASHINGTON MONUMENT It’s a 6,650-square-foot, six-bedroom apartment in Georgetown overlooking the Potomac River, which has gone on the market for $10.6 million. The Washington Post says the condominium may be the city's highest-ever price for an apartment. The owners are Eric Steiner - chief operating officer of Fairchild Corp., which supplies motorcycle gear and airplane parts - and his wife Pascaline. The couple combined three units in the 70-unit Water Street building, which was built in 2004. The combined maintenance fees are $6,838 per month, plus $200 for four garage spaces. In Washington this year through May, only five apartments costing more than $1.5 million sold, down from 18 in the same period last year, according to the local Realtors association. The city's condo record is thought to be a Georgetown sale for $6.25 million. HOBOKEN IS HOLDING ITS OWN Average sales prices are still increasing for downtown condominiums in Hoboken, although most asking prices are open to negotiation these days, as several developers acknowledged in interviews with the New York Times. Developers say that their new buildings are still selling out, if somewhat slower than in the past. The Web service Streeteasy.com reports that waterfront properties continue to command premium prices 30-35 percent above those on Hoboken’s west side, a former industrial area that was nearly unimaginable as a neighborhood only five or six years ago. Bargaining is taking place at all price points for condos old and new, according to statistics from Streeteasy.com. While the average price of a two-bedroom apartment in Hoboken has increased 9.4 percent since the beginning of the year - to $634,917 - more than half of the two-bedrooms currently on the market have had their original asking prices reduced, by an average of 5.3 percent. The average price for a one-bedroom unit has dropped 9.3 percent since January - to $420,797 - and 40 percent of those units now on the market have had their asking prices reduced by an average of 3.3 percent. More of the negotiating is occurring on the west side than on the waterfront, Streeteasy.com indicated. About 88 percent of the two-bedroom units listed on the inland side have reduced prices, taken down by an average 7.4 percent. INSURANCE PROFITS ARE BLOWING IN THE WIND Scientists say the jury is still out on whether rising sea temperatures will cause more hurricanes to hit U.S. coastlines. Yet some insurance companies are boosting premiums based on assumptions SOME DEVELOPERS ARE GETTING INTO A BIND Developers of flagging residential condo projects in the city, especially the outer boroughs, may be faced with a new real estate Catch-22: The prospect of having to provide additional equity to lenders or take out more loans if they want to cut prices to attract buyers. The Real Deal reports that the bind is a direct result of the weak housing market, forcing developers to reduce prices at the same time banks are reeling from the credit crunch and have become unwilling to compromise on their loans. That’s because of a mortgage requirement called the "release price," by which the lender and developer agree on a price for each condo unit (generally about 90 percent of the sales price in the offering plan) until most of the condos are sold. Because that revenue is reserved for the lender, the developer cannot go below the release price without consulting with the bank, which is the first entity to be paid off. Gerald Kray, senior director at Marcus and Millichap, a national real estate investment advisor said he expected to see smaller developers lose buildings, especially in transitional neighborhoods such as the Rockaways or Bedford-Stuyvesant. "In my own opinion, it is going to reach that point, especially with the third-tier and second-tier developers, who don't have the experience. They are usually the first to go," he said. AN UNHAPPY CLIENT KILLS HIS REAL ESTATE AGENT A man upset about a property transaction fatally shot a real estate agent in the head during a meeting in the victim's office, authorities said, according to Business Week. Troy VanderStelt, 34, was pronounced dead at 12:45 p.m. at Mercy Health Partners Hackley Campus in Muskegon, said County Prosecutor Tony Tague. A suspect was arrested a short time after the shooting at a home in nearby Norton Shores. Tague identified him as Robert Arnold Johnson, 73, of Roosevelt Park. The prosecutor said Johnson plotted to kill VanderStelt, took a .22-caliber semiautomatic handgun to the real estate agent's office, got him preoccupied with some paperwork in a conference room, stood next to him, pulled out the gun and shot him once in the temple. Tague told WOOD-TV in Grand Rapids that Johnson believed that VanderStelt took advantage of him in a real estate deal. Johnson bought a house through him in 2005, then recently decided to sell it and went to a different real estate agent. The second agent told Johnson that, because of the slumping housing market, the home was not worth what he had paid for it. APPEALS COURT SAYS MANAGERS CAN BAR MEZUZOT Observant Jews have no right under federal law to install small scrolls known as mezuzot outside the doors of their condominiums, according to a 2-1 decision by the 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, reports the New York Sun. It ruled that the condominium association at Shoreline Towers in Chicago did not run afoul of the Fair Housing Act when managers removed the religious items pursuant to a rule barring the placement of signs, shoes, mats and any other sort of object outside residents' doors. "The hallway rule . . . is neutral with respect to religion," Judge Frank Easterbrook, joined by Judge William Bauer, wrote. "It bans photos of family vacations, political placards, for-sale notices, and Chicago Bears pennants." Judge Easterbrook said the Fair Housing Act requires accommodation for the handicapped but outlaws only discrimination with regard to other protected groups: "We cannot create an accommodation requirement for religion (race, sex, and so on)." In dissent, Judge Diane Wood said enforcement of the rule amounted to a "constructive eviction" of observant Jewish residents, as well as an effective bar on Jews moving into the housing complex. "This is going to be a very troubling decision," an attorney for the American Jewish Congress, Marc Stern, added, saying that New Yorkers have little, if any, protection against similar acts. In 1994, a New York appeals court ruled that the installation of electronic locks on an apartment building did not amount to discrimination against Orthodox Jews who would not use them on the Sabbath. RATES ARE LITTLE CHANGED The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.37 percent for the week, up from last week’s 6.35 percent but below 6.73 percent last year at this time, according to Freddie Mac. The 15-year FRM was 5.91 percent in comparison with 5.92 percent the prior week and 6.39 percent in 2007. Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 5.82 percent, up from last week, when it averaged 5.78 percent and less than the 6.35 percent average a year ago. One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs were unchanged at 5.17 percent; at this time last year, they averaged 5.71 percent. A COURT SETTLEMENT SAYS YOU ARE DUE YOUR CREDIT SCORE Under the terms of a national class-action lawsuit settlement, you may qualify for six or nine months of daily monitoring of your credit file plus unrestricted access to your credit report and score, notes Kenneth R. Harney in the Washington Post. To be eligible, you must have had any form of open credit account - a charge card, student loan, auto loan or mortgage - at any time between Jan. 1, 1987, and May 28, 2008. Under the terms of a settlement agreed to by TransUnion - one of the three dominant credit repositories - you can visit a special Web site (listclassaction.com) or call a toll-free number (866-416-3470) to register a claim. You have until Sept. 24 to sign up. One downside for mortgage applicants: The credit score you receive from the settlement agreement will not be a FICO score, the dominant score used by mortgage lenders; it will be TransUnion's proprietary score, which may be roughly comparable to your FICO score but sometimes can differ substantially. A NEWISH WEB SITE LIKES TO DANCE ON LENDERS’ GRAVES A fledgling Web site called the Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter is gleefully tallying the number of lenders that run into trouble, reports the New York Times too. On Monday, the count was 265 - and rising. With its tongue-in-cheek tone and running lists of the "imploded" and the merely "ailing," the Implode-O-Meter has become a sort of Gawker of the subprime world. At a recent Mortgage Bankers Association conference, a speaker addressed what has become a hot topic among lenders: how to keep your company’s name off the site. The Implode-O-Meter is the brainchild of Aaron Krowne, a former researcher at Emory University in Atlanta. A computer scientist and mathematician, Krowne, 28, started the site in 2007, believing that the troubles in the housing market, and by extension the mortgage industry, would worsen. He was right and the Implode-O-Meter took off. Traffic on the site soared, reaching as many as 100,000 regular visitors, and advertising dollars rolled in. Krowne quit his day job and hired 10 people for his company, Implode-Explode Heavy Industries. LOAN APPLICATIONS INCREASED DURING JULY 4TH WEEK The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said volume went up by 7.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. Unadjusted for the holiday, activity fell by 14.1 percent compared with the previous week and 18.1 percent compared with the same week one year earlier. Refinancings were 8.7 percent higher than the previous week, while purchase application rose 6.7 above one week earlier seasonally adjusted. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 37.3 percent of total applications from 36.8 percent the previous week, and the adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share went up to 10.0 percent from 8.5 percent. 2ND QUARTER SALES SLIDE, PRICES RISE AND SUPPLY GAINS As in the first quarter, fewer sales occurred compared with the prior year quarter. But there were more than the corresponding quarter 2007, according to the latest report on the Manhattan market by appraisal firm Miller Samuel. There were 3,081 co-op and condo sales when the three months ended on May 31, down 21.8 percent from the prior year quarter. The decline in activity was evenly NEW BUILDING CODE REMOVES A TOUCH OF LUXURY For construction after July 1, the key-locked elevator that provides a private entrance into an apartment is history, notes New York magazine. The wording is a little vague, so the ruling may be open to interpretation, but Michael Zenreich, an architect who helped write the new code, reads the provision to mean that elevators must now open into a vestibule, an arrangement that’s deemed safer in a fire. FOR THE FIRST TIME, STREETEASY.COM ALSO WEIGHS IN The Web site says in its first quarterly report that the Manhattan median posted an 8.1 percent increase since last quarter and 17.4 percent increase since this quarter last year. The average price is currently at $1,635,000, according to the report, 0.4 percent lower than last quarter but 27.2 percent higher than the prior year quarter. StreetEasy.com added the caveat that the numbers were based on recorded closings, a good portion of which are of new development units that went into contract six to 18 months ago. "Therefore, these prices would be more indicative of the real estate market when these properties went into contract," the report said, observing that 30 percent of closings in the second quarter were new development units, including the super-expensive 15 Central Park West and the Plaza, which have sold at unprecedented prices for condos. The report also found that inventory increased steadily over the quarter to approximately 8,500 units, with an average of 411 new listings coming onto the market every week, 8 percent more than in the first quarter. There were more than 2,500 listings with price cuts, approximately 25 percent fewer price cuts than in the prior quarter but 12 percent more than the prior year quarter; the decreases average 5.4 percent of the sales price. Another declining figure was closings, which were off 20 percent since the previous quarter and 44 percent since the same time last year. "As more and more people find it difficult to obtain mortgages, there are simply fewer transactions that are actually closing," the report said. "The decline in the number of closings, and the increase in inventory, also reflects the 'wait-and-see' attitude of most buyers who are hoping to see prices drop further and sellers who hope to sell at optimistic levels." Click here to see all the numbers. APPRAISERS ARE INCREASINGLY VISITING SPLITSVILLE Two of New York's top appraisal firms for housing reported increases in divorce cases this year, reports the Real Deal. Marianne Mueller of Manhattan-based appraisal firm Mitchell, Maxwell and Jackson said the volume for divorce work was up about 17 percent in the first quarter. "That is indicative for me clearly that (clients) are not confident to use their own values so they hire an appraiser to determine the market value," she said. Jonathan Miller, president and CEO of appraisal firm Miller Samuel, said he had seen a substantial increase from January to May compared with the year before, but he did not provide exact numbers. Most of the firm's work is for legal matters, he said. "I am struck by its broad base. It is not isolated to high end," Miller said. "It is covering most demographics." FORECLOSURES SURGE ALARMINGLY IN FOUR CITIES The number of newly scheduled trustees sales soared 63 percent in Los Angeles County from the first to second quarters, 28 percent in Seattle, 20 percent in Miami and 5 percent in New York says PropertyShark.com. Compared with the same quarter last year, the respective increases were: 282 percent, 108 percent, 49 percent and 48 percent. The Los Angeles foreclosure rate was 15 times higher than New York’s, where the only borough to post a decline was Staten Island (-30 percent). In Los Angeles, the total amount of liens for scheduled trustee sales reached $5 billion, four times more than the same time last year. FORBES PICKS THE BEST COUNTIES FOR FAMILIES Low cost of living, reasonably priced homes and short commute times added to excellent schools is what landed 10 communities at the top of Forbes magazine’s best places to raise a family, says Realtor magazine. To be considered, the communities had to have populations greater than 65,000 and most of the school funding had to come from property taxes. Average SAT and ACT scores respectively must top 1,050 or 22, limiting the number of counties under consideration to 51. Then, the magazine considered cost of living, graduation rates, home prices, property tax rates as a percentage of median home prices, percentage of homes occupied by owners, per-capita income, air quality, crime rate and commute times. The winners: Hamilton County, Ind. (near Indianapolis); Ozaukee County, Wis. (near Milwaukee); Johnson County, Kan. (near Kansas City); Geauga County, Ohio (near Cleveland); Delaware County, Ohio (near Columbus); Morris County, N.J. (northern N.J.); Hunterdon County, N.J. (central N.J.); Waukesha County, Wis. (near Milwaukee); Montgomery County, Pa. (near Philadelphia); and Chester County, Pa. (near Wilmington, Del.) Excluded by virtue of their commute times were Westchester and Fairfax counties. For more, click here. SOME OLDER CITIES ARE GAINING IN POPULATION In a modest reversal, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Diego and some of the nation’s other older cities registered small gains in population in the year ending July 2007, while others slowed their declines, according to new census figures. The New York Times reports that growth slackened in some booming Sun Belt cities, but that region was home to nine of the 10 cities recording the largest numerical gains in population. The only one outside the region - New York - ranked sixth in numerical growth from July 1, 2006 to July 1, 2007. The city gained about 24,000 residents in that period, increasing its population to 8.3 million. New York City’s population has expanded by 265,000 since 2000, more than any other American city. Washington recorded a slight gain in the latest survey, but for the first time was bumped from the 25 most populous cities, overtaken by Nashville. Some older cities appeared to benefit from the housing slump, which made leaving for outlying areas and for developing cities in the South and West less alluring. Brookings demographer William H. Frey said the trend could accelerate if gasoline prices and commuting costs continue to grow. An influx of younger immigrants also contributed to the older cities’ modest population gains. Can You Hear It Now? The market is speaking loud and clear, and many sellers do not seem to be listening. The disconnect between buyers and sellers is obvious as inventory grows and sales moderate. Moreover, the levels of consumer confidence, the Dow-Jones average, the unemployment rate and the GDP not only provide information that cannot be ignored: These gauges also create a self-fulfilling prophecy. The classic definition of a recession is two quarters with negative growth. So, it is impossible to know when the nation is in a recession until after it has started. The statistics are necessarily retrospective. So it is with housing statistics, which, of course, also have to be retrospective. Past become precedent. New York City has, for the most part, so far escaped the calamitous housing situation elsewhere in much of the nation. But New York customarily lags the rest of the country in this respect. And the layoffs on Wall Street - which provides nearly a quarter of the city’s employment revenue - cause repercussions in the many other industries that support the financial services industry; among the many are haberdashers, dry cleaners, printers, messengers, restaurants and clubs. It is a long list. It is hard to argue that we are not now in a buyer’s market. That statement does not mean, however, the sellers should not be selling. (Click here to see what this newsletter has had to say about catching the bottom of the market.) What it means is that buyers should be, and are, negotiating. It means the property owners need to be accommodating, and often are not. It means they must lower both their irrational expectations and their prices. Sellers don’t like hearing such a suggestion, but they are well served by that advice in terms of a sale that occurs quickly for the highest sum. Some developers of new luxury condominiums apparently have heard the market’s message. Unsurprisingly, they have been in the forefront of recognizing the new reality. Knowing that their numerous units are freighted with the stamp of uniformity, rather than the halo of uniqueness, they started offering incentives a while ago (often only to brokers). To unload supply, that’s the wise course of action. Developers also are pulling back on their projects, either putting them on hold or going rental. Some are even going belly up. Bear in mind that their success depends on accurately forecasting the market, so they are fastest to respond to its changes. Now, it’s up to other sellers to heed the market and to buyers to demand the full value that conditions today dictate. Below are some properties offered by a number of brokers with sellers, of whom only a smattering gets it: Upper West Side
Greenwich Village
Upper East Side
Some of Manhattan's Latest Listings Please click here to view available properties. (To view all photos, tours, floor plans and maps, please use Internet Explorer.) Click Here to Sign Up For Your Free Issue of Realty Digest!
©
2007 Service You Can Trust |
||
originally expected. He said in subsequent speech that the Bush administration was working to prevent as many home foreclosures as possible but that "many of today’s unusually high number of foreclosures are not preventable." Paulson said 1.5 million home foreclosures were started in 2007 and that an estimated 2.5 million more would take place this year. Bernanke said that the Fed would issue long-awaited rules next week to restrict new exotic mortgages and high-cost loans for people with weak credit. Also, the Federal Housing Administration will begin an expanded effort next week to help a larger group of troubled homeowners refinance their adjustable mortgages. Under the plan, homeowners would be eligible to refinance even if they have missed up to three monthly mortgage payments over the previous 12 months. Homeowners who have fallen behind on their payments because of job loss, declining wages and family illness would be eligible too, even if their rates have not increased. Homeowners are now eligible only if they were current on their mortgages before their interest rate was adjusted upward.
carefully. It's important not to do too much - making something too quirky or personal or spending so much they risk pushing their price too high. Not doing enough can be a danger, too: The gross-out factor can be very high. If you plan to redo a bathroom, you won't necessarily get all your money back, but you'll probably do pretty well, according to the most recent survey by Remodeling Online magazine, done last year in conjunction with the National Association of Realtors. In the Middle Atlantic region, a midrange bathroom remodel costing about $17,000 would recoup nearly 71 percent upon resale, the survey says. An upscale job - about $54,000 - would recoup less, about 60 percent. Just spend that remodeling money wisely: Another survey last year by the Realtors' group showed only 36 percent of buyers thought a separate shower enclosure in the master bath was "very important" and a mere 13 percent thought a whirlpool bath was.
that they will. Others are withdrawing from coastal communities altogether. Costs for homeowner insurance along the East and Gulf coasts have risen 20-100 percent since 2004, says the Insurance Information Institute. In the three years through 2006, says the institute, property and casualty insurers registered record profits topping out at $65.8 billion in 2006. (Despite severe U.S. weather that has caused about $8.9 billion in insured property losses to date this year, it's too early to forecast 2008 profits.) Helping to drive these developments is a little-known tool of the insurance world: computerized catastrophe modeling. Crafted by several independent firms and used by most insurers, so-called cat models rely on complex data to estimate probable losses from hurricanes. But regulators and other critics contend that the latest cat models - which include assumptions about various climate changes - are triggering higher insurance rates.
spread across coop and condo property types. "With tighter credit conditions for market participants existing today as compared to last year, it is reasonable to expect a lower level of activity relative to 2007 for the remainder of 2008," the report said. "In fact, there were more co-op and condo sales in 2007 than in any other year over the past 20 years." Nonetheless, second-quarter prices were at or near record levels. The median was $1.025M, up 14.5 percent, the first time that measure has breached $1 million. After excluding the two super-luxury buildings that skewed the results - 15 Central Park West and the Plaza, the median rose just 11.2 percent. For co-ops alone, the median reached a record $755,000, up 8.6 percent from the same quarter last year and a bit above the previous quarter’s record of $750,000. For condos, the median achieved a record $1,267,000. The luxury market recorded a median of $4,950,000 this quarter, up 37.5 percent from the prior year quar¬ter. The total number of listings climbed to 6,869 units, 31.2 percent higher than last year but 10.9 percent lower than same period two years ago even as the supply of luxury apartments dropped 31.5 percent below same period last year. At the same time, the number of days on market that apartments stayed on the market increased to 135, two and a half weeks longer than last year. The listing discount was 3.6 percent, up from 2.2 percent last year.
