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Welcome back with best wishes for a very happy, healthy and prosperous 2007. With new listings only now coming to the market, Out and About will resume in two weeks with our next issue. See you then! IN THIS ISSUE:
The Mortgage Biz NEW LAW AIDS BORROWERS WITH MORTGAGE INSURANCE: Households with annual income of $100,000 or less can get a tax break on their mortgage insurance when purchasing a home in 2007 using less than the traditional 20 percent down payment, notes Inman News. That’s because a new tax deduction will allow them to write off the full cost of their private or government mortgage insurance on their federal tax return. On average, the new deduction is expected to save those eligible to claim it an average of $300-350 a year. The deduction applies to private and government mortgage insurance programs, such as VA and FHA-backed loans. RATES ARE FLAT: The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.18 percent for the week, unchanged from last week, according to Freddie Mac. Last year at this time, it was 6.21 percent. The 15-year FRM this week averaged 5.94 percent, up from last week’s 5.93 percent and last year’s 5.76 percent. Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) were 6.02 percent this week, up from 5.98 percent. A year ago, the five-year ARM averaged 5.78 percent. One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs were 5.42 percent, down from 5.47 percent the prior week and 5.16 percent one year earlier. "Interest rates were flat this past week, reflecting the mixed messages from recent economic indicators," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. "The recently released manufacturing report showed improvement, and while construction spending for November was down, it was still better than expected. On the other hand, a private sector employment report suggested that the labor market was weaker than anticipated. As a result, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates started off the year at about the same level as this time last year.” He added that the market was now “waiting for a clearer signal on the direction in which the economy is heading. . .” It’s anyone’s guess when that will be. MORTGAGE DELINQUENCY IS ON THE RISE: The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties stood at 4.67 percent of all loans outstanding in the third quarter of 2006 on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, up 28 basis points from the second quarter and up 23 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The increase was driven by increases in delinquencies for all major loan types, most notably for subprime and FHA loans. Delinquency rates for prime, subprime and FHA loans increased on a seasonally adjusted basis relative to the second quarter. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process was 1.05 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter, an increase of six basis points from the second quarter of 2006, while the SA rate of loans entering the foreclosure process was 0.46 percent, three basis points higher than the previous quarter. Compared with the third quarter of 2005, the percentage of loans in the foreclosure process was up eight basis points, while the percentage of loans entering the foreclosure process was up five basis points. Said MBA Chief Economist Doug Duncan: “It is important to remember that delinquency and foreclosure rates have been quite low the last two years.” According to Inman News, he expects the 30-year mortgage rate to hover around 6.5 percent for the remainder of the year but climb to 6.8 percent by the end of 2008. Duncan is "optimistic about a rebound" in the housing market this year, citing still-low long-term interest rates, robust capital expenditures and rising equity prices, among other factors. BUYING POINTS CAN REDUCE MORTGAGE PAYMENTS IF. . . : You have to play the numbers right, counsels the Wall Street Journal. Start with a basic question: How long do you think you will hold the loan? If you hold it long enough, the savings on the monthly payments from the lower interest rate will more than cover the cost of the points. Most of the time, it takes years to get there. Doing the math involves other issues, too, such as whether you intend to invest any savings such as the money not spent on points. Plus, there are tax breaks for points buyers. There's a good calculator for figuring it all out at mtgprofessor.com. Scroll down, click on "Mortgage Calculators," then scroll to the points calculators. Say you seek a $500,000, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage and can get a 6 percent rate with one point or a 6.25 percent rate with no points. You would have to keep that loan for 57 months to break even on the points (assuming you are in the 33 percent tax bracket and your savings earn 7 percent). To see how points have worked out for borrowers, two Penn State researchers 3,785 fixed-rate mortgages between 1996 and 2003. The pair found that just 1.4 percent of borrowers held their mortgages long enough to break even on the points they paid. The rest paid off their loans more than three years, on average, before they would have hit that break-even point. MORTGAGE
APPLICATIONS ARE RISING:
For the week ending Dec. 29, volume rose 3.6 percent from one week earlier,
even accounting for Christmas, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
On an unadjusted basis, activity declined 27.4 percent compared with the
previous week but was up 6.9 percent compared with the same week one year
earlier. The number of refinancings went up by 2.2 percent from the previous
week seasonally adjusted and purchase applications, by 4.3 percent. The
refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 48.1 percent of total
applications from 48.8 percent the previous week, and the adjustable-rate
mortgage (ARM) share decreased to 20.4 from 23.1 percent. The ARM share
is at its lowest level since July 2003. The Market TRADE GROUP SEES PROMISE IN NEW PENDING SALES SATISTICS: A stabilization trend in the housing market is likely to continue, according to the latest reading on pending home sales by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Based on contracts signed in November, the Pending Home Sales Index eased by 0.5 percent to 107.0 from an upwardly revised reading of 107.5 in October. It is 11.4 percent lower than November 2005. The decline from year-ago levels has been steadily narrowing since July, which was 16.0 percent lower than the same month in 2005. “Because there is a stronger parallel between changes in the index from a year ago and the actual pace of home sales in coming months, the index is pointing toward fairly stable home sales in the near future,” said David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist. “That is another indicator that home sales likely bottomed-out in September.” An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, the first year to be examined and the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales. There is a closer relationship between annual changes in the index and actual market performance than with month-to-month comparisons. “Although some monthly declines are possible, when we look at the forecast for existing-home sales in 2007 on a quarterly basis, we see gradual improvement over the course of the year,” Lereah said. “That will support future price appreciation as inventories are drawn down.” HOUSING STARTS, PERMITS ARE BOTH DOWN FROM A YEAR AGO: Unseasonably warm November weather helped boost total housing starts 6.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.588 million units for the month, according to figures released by the Commerce Department. But builders reduced the pace of permit issuance another 3.0 percent in November, to 1.506 million units, a level that was 31.3 percent below a year earlier. November's rise in housing starts followed a 13.8 percent drop in October, when weather conditions were unusually harsh. On a year-over-year basis, total housing starts were down 25.5 percent in November. Single-family permit issuance was down 3.1 percent on a national basis to a pace of 1.144 million units for the month - 33.3 percent below a year earlier. The pace of multifamily permit issuance was down 2.7 percent to 362,000 units for the month and 23.8 percent below November 2005. Chief economist David Seiders of the National Association of Home Builders noted that the pattern of building permits points toward “some reduction” in housing starts in coming months. "NAHB's forecast shows a bottoming in starts in the first quarter of the year, followed by a recovery process that will raise housing production back up toward a sustainable trend performance in 2008," he said. NEW HOME SALES ARE UP AS SUPPLY DIPS: The U.S. Commerce Department reported that sales of newly built, single-family homes rose 3.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.05 million units in November. Sales also were revised upward for the three previous months. The latest number is up from October's 1.01 million units and well above the recent low of 979,000 units that was recorded in July. "This is a very good report and is consistent with the idea that the rather abrupt downward correction in home sales from the unsustainable highs of 2005 has reached its end. Furthermore, inventories of unsold units are gradually being drawn down from their mid-year highs," commented David Seiders, Chief Economist of the National Association of Home Builders. "The inventory of new homes for sale fell for the fourth consecutive month in November to 545,000 units, which is equivalent to a 6.3-month supply at the current sales pace. This is the lowest inventory level since February and the lowest month's supply since May. “Although the rebound in sales is consistent with the housing slowdown bottoming out, it seems too early to rejoice,” Dimitry Fleming, an economist with ING Financial Markets told the New York Times. “Supply is still high.” Many economists do not expect the market to stabilize until mid-2007. SALES OF PREVIOUSLY OWNED HOMES RISES AGAIN, BUT PRICES SLIDE: Existing-home sales continued to recover in November following a rise in October, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Total existing-home sales - including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops - rose 0.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.28 million units in November, up from 6.24 million the previous month. However, that amount falls 10.7 percent below the 7.03 million-unit pace in November 2005. “As the housing market recovers from its correction, existing-home sales should be rising gradually during 2007," said David Lereah, NAR's chief economist. "It looks like we may have reached the low point for the current cycle in September. We’ve entered a more sustainable period of home sales now, and we expect greater support for prices over time as inventory levels are eventually drawn down.” Total housing inventory levels fell 1 percent at the end of November to 3.82 million existing homes available for sale, representing a 7.3-month supply at the current sales pace. The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $218,000 in November - 3.1 percent lower than November 2005, when the median price was $225,000. “For every 1 percent drop in home prices, we project an additional 50,000 buyers are drawn into the market,” Lereah says. As for single-family
homes, sales increased 0.2 percent in November from October but were 10.2
percent lower than the in November 2005. The median existing single-family
home price was $217,200 in November, 3.6 percent lower than a year earlier.
Existing condominium and co-operative housing sales rose 3.1 percent seasonally
adjusted in November from a downwardly revised 734,000 annual rate in
October. They were 13.6 percent below the pace in November 2005. The median
existing condo price was $224,600 in November, unchanged from a year ago. Home and Hearth TO
QUOTE THE PRODUCERS, ‘YOU CAN DO IT’:
If you don't want to face a dreary, badly lighted bathroom first thing
in the morning and last thing at night for the next year, resolve to spruce
things up, the Washington Post suggests. Even if your budget or landlord
rules out a major remodel, don't despair: Inexpensive cosmetic changes
can dramatically improve the room. First, experts agree, clear the clutter
of old makeup and expired medication. This advice takes experts? Then,
consider a fresh coat of paint. Even if you've inherited a pink-tile bathroom,
using a soft, complementary paint color (such as a warm white) can tone
down the tile and make it more tolerable, says Barbara Sallick, co-founder
of Waterworks. Other quick changes include hanging a new shower curtain
on a shiny chrome rod; painting the vanity and installing new knobs; replacing
a rusted medicine cabinet with a mirror and shelf over the sink; and adding
hanging art and other decorative objects (a small clock can be particularly
helpful). In powder rooms, Sallick likes using vintage towels found at
flea markets to dress up the small space. Also, perhaps try hiding drab
or dated flooring under sisal or other natural fiber cut to the shape
of room. Many carpet stores sell bargain-price carpet remnants big enough
to do the job. BUILDERS SAY THE WORST IS BEHIND THEM: Heading into the holidays, builders of new single-family homes continued to believe that the worst of the downswing in home buying is behind them, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for December. At 32, the overall HMI is down a single point from November but remains above the recent low of 30 in September. "The HMI has come off September's low point, and other recent indicators confirm that buying conditions have improved and that demand is stabilizing - including improvements in measures of housing affordability, strengthening consumer assessments of home buying conditions and an upswing in applications for mortgages to buy homes," said Chief Economist David Seiders of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). "Builders sense that the tide is turning in terms of buyer demand for their product and are feeling somewhat better about the prospects for home sales." Seiders said that the recent stabilization of home buyer demand largely reflects reductions in mortgage interest rates since mid-year, the retreat of energy prices from record highs and maintenance of solid growth in employment and household income. Reductions in home prices and widespread sales incentives offered by builders also have helped to buoy buyer demand. THE BAD TIMES ROLL ON: Louisiana’s population totaled only 4.3 million on July 1, 2006, down nearly 220,000 from one year earlier, according to estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau. The state lost almost 5 percent of its pre-Hurricane Katrina population during the course of the year. In the same period, New York State lost 9,538 residents but remained one of the most populous states. Texas gained more people than any other state (579,275). Because of all that sagebrush? Florida and California followed, gaining 321,697 and 303,402, respectively. Rounding out the top five states were Georgia (231,388) and Arizona (213,311), which was the nation’s fastest-growing state over the period, breaking Nevada’s grip on the title, with its population rising 3.6 percent. Nevada ranked second this time, as its population climbed by 3.5 percent, followed by Idaho (2.6 percent), Georgia (2.6 percent) and Texas (2.5 percent). The South and West again monopolized the list of fastest-growing states with Utah, North Carolina, Colorado, Florida and South Carolina rounding out the top 10. Colorado and South Carolina replaced Delaware and Oregon on the list this year. According to the estimates, California remains the most populous state with 36.5 million residents on July 1, 2006. Rounding out the top five states were Texas (23.5 million), New York (19.3 million), Florida (18.1 million) and Illinois (12.8 million). TRENDS IN METRO AREAS ARE OBJECT OF BROOKINGS SCRUTINY: The think tank notes that, among other things, there are more poor residents in the suburbs than in central cities, according to Realtor magazine In addition: 6 percent of the population in large U.S. metropolitan areas live in exurbs; more than one-third of the nation's loss of manufacturing jobs between 2000 and 2005 occurred in seven Great Lakes states: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin; older, inner-ring first suburbs, the earliest suburbs that sprang up around center cities before and during World War II, make up 20 percent of the nation's population and are more diverse and older than the nation as a whole; the average U.S. household spends 19 percent of its budget on transportation; the leading refugee destination metro areas have shifted away from traditional immigrant gateways such as Los Angeles and New York over the past two decades to newer gateways such as Atlanta, Portland and Seattle; the fastest-growing metropolitan areas for minority populations from 2000 to 2004 now closely parallel the fastest-growing areas in the nation such as Las Vegas, Atlanta, Orlando and Phoenix; middle-income neighborhoods as a proportion of all metropolitan neighborhoods declined to 41 percent in 2000 from 58 percent in 1970, disappearing faster than the share of middle class households in these metro areas. JUST
8.4 PERCENT OF HOME SALES WERE ATTRIBUTABLE TO INVESTORS:
Investors accounted for only 8.4 percent of home sales from January through
September, according to First American LoanPerformance -down from 9.5
percent during the corresponding period in 2005, reports the Wall Street
Journal. In the third quarter, the company says there was a 70-percent
drop in mortgages to purchase investment homes from the previous July-through-September
period. Deerfield, Fla.-based real estate consultant Jack McCabe adds
that investors have largely fled southern Florida, Phoenix, Las Vegas,
San Diego and the District of Columbia - markets where high home prices
and a slowdown in sales have made property investments less feasible.
Experts report that single-family homes and condos will experience minimal
appreciation during the next five years, and investors who bought during
the boom either can sell at a discount or take a moderate loss by holding
onto their properties while waiting for the market to pick up. A BANK’S CEO FORESEES A BETTER YEAR IN 2007: Home prices are "really down much more" than recent economic reports suggest, says Wells Fargo Chief Executive Officer Richard Kovacevich, according to Bloomberg News in Realtor magazine. The U.S. housing market hasn't bottomed yet because generous builder incentives continue to prop up sales and prices. "It's pretty ugly at the moment," Kovacevich said. He estimates, based on internal data, that about 20 percent of the 375 metropolitan statistical areas in the country are experiencing 20 percent declines in home prices. But Kovacevich believes this year is going to be better. "There's no way that the housing market is going to be bad if you have 4.4 percent unemployment, 6 percent mortgages, and the economy is growing at 3 percent," he says. REALTOR
GROUPS PREDICTS A RISE IN SALES OF EXISTING HOMES:
Annual totals are predicted to be comparable to 2006, while new-home sales
will continue to slide, according to the latest forecast by the National
Association of Realtors (NAR). As David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist
sees it through his typically rose-colored glasses: “Roughly three-quarters
of the country will experience a sluggish expansion in 2007, while other
areas should continue to contract for at least part of the year. Most
of the correction in home prices is behind us, but general gains in value
next year will be modest by historical standards.” Existing-home sales,
finishing the third-best year on record, are projected for 2006 at 6.47
million, a decline of 8.6 percent. In 2007, they’re expected to rise steadily
from the current cyclical low and reach an annual total of 6.40 million,
which would be 1.0 percent lower than this year’s total. “By the fourth
quarter of 2007, existing-home sales will be 4.6 percent higher than the
current quarter,” Lereah said. But new-home sales in 2006 are expected
to fall 17.7 percent to 1.06 million, the fourth highest total on record,
before sliding an additional 9.4 percent in 2007, to 957,000. Total housing
starts for 2006 are likely to drop 12.3 percent to 1.82 million units,
with another 15.1 percent decline in 2007, to 1.54 million, says the NAR.
According to the trade group, the national median existing-home price
for all of 2006 is projected to rise 1.4 percent to $222,600, with another
1.0 percent gain this year to $224,700. The median new-home price should
ease by 0.5 percent to $239,700 this year, then rise by 0.8 percent in
2007 to $241,700. “Keep in mind that overall home prices were still appreciating
at double digit rates in the first quarter of 2006 - prices in this buyer’s
market are temporarily a little below a year ago, when we were in a strong
seller’s market,” Lereah said. “This correction is one of the factors
drawing buyers into the current market, but most sellers are still seeing
very healthy long-term gains.” GOOD NEWS FOR STORM-THREATENED HOMEOWNERS: Bucking the trend of insurers cutting back coverage for homeowners who live in storm-exposed areas, Chubb Corp. says it will begin offering excess flood coverage policies for its upscale customers who live along the coasts of Florida, New York and other states. The new policies cover water damage from hurricanes, storms and other types of flooding and are meant to supplement the National Flood Insurance Program, which has largely replaced the private market in first-dollar flood protection. The offer to cover hurricane flood damage puts Chubb at odds with other insurers, who are cutting back in the area. After a record-breaking 2005 storm season, insurers and risk modeling companies came to believe that coming years will have more hurricanes than average and that coastal areas as far north as New York could be more vulnerable to a big storm than generally thought. Allstate Corp. has been the most aggressive in cutting its exposure to huge hurricane losses. This year, the insurer said it will stop writing new homeowners policies in New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware, and is cutting back in Florida and coastal New York. Chubb, whose homeowners market share is far smaller than Allstate's, primarily insures more upscale homes whose owners may find the $250,000 building damage limit of the national flood program inadequate. RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION DIPS: The rate of private residential construction spending fell for the eighth consecutive month in November and dropped 11.1 percent compared with the November 2005 level, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, reports Inman News. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of private residential construction spending was $589.3 million in November as opposed to $663.1 million in November 2005. The rate - a projection of a monthly construction total over a 12-month period, adjusted for seasonal fluctuations in activity - had reached a record $665.6 million in December 2005 for private residential construction spending. REAL ESTATE IN MUTUAL FUNDS HAS PROVED PROFITABLE: Real-estate focused mutual funds are shaping up as the best U.S. stock-investing story for 2006 by far - a fact that's surprising even some top managers, given that they've already seen big gains for several years, according to the Wall Street Journal. Real-estate funds dipped briefly in 2005 but are now the best-performing U.S. stock category for several performance periods, including one year and five years. The funds have returned 30 percent in the past 12 months, six percentage points above the next-best category, utilities. The MSCI U.S. REIT Index is up more than 30 percent this year, compared with 13 percent for the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index. Of course, it's not an entirely rosy picture. Real estate funds have been volatile over the past few years, returning 4.5 percent in 2002, between 30 percent and 40 percent in 2003 and 2004, and 12 percent in 2005. Stocks have become pricier as an array of deals has helped boost prices. The average 12-month yield for real estate funds has also declined to 2.21 percent in December from 2.86 percent in 2005 and over 4 percent about five years ago, suggesting REITs are becoming less attractive compared to say, long-term bonds. A slowing economy and potential interest rate cuts this year are main concerns on many real-estate managers' minds. Boldface THIS
HOME’S FORMER OWNERSHIP DOESN’T HELP ITS SALE: In
a little-known, decidedly humdrum Alexandria, Va. neighborhood lived the
late President Ford for nearly 20 years as a Michigan congressman, vice
president and - for 10 whole days before moving into the White House -
as the leader of the free world, observes the Washington Post. Mostly
everything about the place appears serviceable and decently appointed
(with a swimming pool out back, to boot). But the property spans less
than a quarter-acre, a remarkable four-bedroom home simply because it
is so unremarkable. Javad Khakbaz, who is the president of an Iranian
English-language newspaper company, has tried to find someone to take
it off his hands since September and is suffering the same indignity laid
upon just about every other seller in the Washington area: No one's buying,
even though Khakbaz has dropped the original price of $1.05 million to
$999,000. "It's a hard house to sell because it's been a rental for
a long time," said Jill McCaffrey, 63, who lives next door to the
Ford home with her husband, retired four-star Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey.
"Let's just leave it at that." Let’s. Fourth Quarter Market
Overview Prices dip, sales surge and inventory falls The just-released Fourth Quarter 2006 Prudential Douglas Elliman Manhattan market overview reveals that the overall Manhattan apartment market continues to show some weakness. At the same time, the number of sales jumped and inventory dropped sharply. Price indicators dipped about 5 percent from the prior quarter but remained at similar to - or as much as 5 percent above - the same period last year. Listing inventory fell 22.2 percent from the prior year quarter, and the number of sales jumped 15.5 percent from the third quarter. Falling mortgage rates over the period as well as an improved local economic outlook played a role in the improvements, and the release of co-ops into public record for the first time somewhat tempered the gain in the number of sales. While the number of days it took to sell remained relatively unchanged at 149 days from the previous quarter's 150, the average listing discount or negotiability dropped to 2.8 percent. "The drop indicates a continuing trend of sellers becoming more realistic in setting prices rather than indicating that sellers were becoming more resistant to negotiating," says Jonathan J. Miller, president and chief executive officer of Manhattan residential real estate appraisal firm Miller Samuel. Highlights from the market overview, prepared by Miller Samuel:
Co-ops
Condos
Luxury Units
Lofts
New Listings Some of Manhattan's Latest Listings Below
are just a few of the newest listings of condominiums and cooperatives
put on the market by various brokers. 425
Fifth Ave - 22C, NEW YORK, NY 10016 25
Central Park West - 7W, NEW YORK, NY 10023 115
Fourth Ave - 7B, NEW YORK, NY 10003 515
E 72nd St - 30E, New York, NY 10021 335
W 87th St - 1, New York, NY 10024 115
Central Park West - 19D, NEW YORK, NY 10023 To see photos, more information and scores of other listings by brokers throughout New York City and Long Island, please visit our website at http://www.ServiceYouCanTrust.com, then click on the appropriate area. To view details of a particular property listed above you will need to note the address. Click Here to Sign Up For Your Free Issue of Realty Digest!
Contact Information email: info@ServiceYouCanTrust.com
© 2007 Service You Can
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Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate® New York Office 212.891.7684 |
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