Realty Digest

Realty Digest
A Quirky Collection of News and Information
From Malcolm Carter

**** October 7, 2006 ****

Longtime readers will note slight changes in format and content to reflect where the writer spends the bulk of his time while continuing as a licensed real estate professional in the District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia in addition to New York.

Items of Interest
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FED CHIEF SAYS THE CORRECTION IS SUBSTANTIAL: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in a speech that the U.S. housing market was in a "substantial correction." It will lop about a percentage point off economic growth in the second half and would restrain the expansion next year, reports Bloomberg News in the New York Times. "How far will the correction go?" Bernanke asked himself, according to the Washington Post. "It's very difficult to tell, is the honest answer," the chairman responded. He added that the decline in residential housing construction is one of the "major drags that is causing the economy to slow." But Bernanke gave several reasons to expect the housing market to level off and eventually bounce back, including low unemployment, rising incomes and low mortgage rates. Although sales of previously owned homes fell in August, some analysts also saw signs that the market might be stabilizing, noting increases that month in both new-home sales and pending sales, in which contracts have been signed but the deals have not yet closed.

WILL AUGUST PROVE TO BE THE LOWEST MONTH: Pending home sales have increased, showing that the housing market continues to stabilize, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). NAR's Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in August, rose 4.3 percent from July, but it is 14.1 percent lower than August 2005. Commented David Lereah, the trade association's chief economist: "Our sense is that home sales may have reached a low in August. The Pending Home Sales Index shows home sales should be fairly stable over the next two months, although a minor decline is possible." He added that fewer listings on the market suggests that "we should be able to draw down the inventory supply early next year to the point where home prices will rise, but at a slower pace than historic norms."

ONE INCENTIVE FOR SELLERS IS TO OFFER A MORTGAGE: As a sales incentive, home sellers with a lot of equity often agree to carry back a first or second mortgage for their buyers, notes the Washington Post. Of course, the buyer should make a reasonable down payment, such as 10 percent of the sales price, and the seller should check the buyer's credit report and credit score. For the seller, security for the buyer's promissory note will be either a first or second mortgage recorded against the title. If the buyer defaults and fails to pay the secured mortgage payments or fails to pay the property taxes or fire insurance premium, then foreclosure can begin. The average foreclosure time is four to six months. At the foreclosure auction, the highest bidder gets the title to the property and the mortgage balance is paid in full. If no bidders show up at the foreclosure auction, the sellers gets back the property title, making it possible to sell the property once again.

SALES SLIDE OF EXISTING HOMES AS INVENTORY SOARS: Total existing-home sales - including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops - slipped 0.5 percent in August from July. Sales were 12.6 percent lower than in August 2005, which was the second highest on record, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $225,000 in August, down 1.7 percent from August 2005, but still considerably higher than in previous years. "After a stronger-than-expected drop in July, the fairly even sales numbers in August tell us the market is at a more sustainable pace," spun NAR Chief Economist David Lereah. "It keeps us on track to see the third highest sales year on record, but we do expect an adjustment in home prices to last several months as we work through a build-up in the inventory of homes on the market." He added that the drop was the "price correction" the NAR has been expecting. "With sales stabilizing, we should go back to positive price growth early next year," Lereah said. Total housing inventory levels rose 1.5 percent at the end of August to 3.92 million existing homes available for sale, representing a 7.5-month supply at the current sales pace - the highest supply since April 1993. Single-family home sales held at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.51 million in August, unchanged from July, but volume was 12.3 percent lower than in the previous August. The median existing single-family home price was $225,700 in August, down 1.7 percent from a year ago. Existing condominium and cooperative housing sales fell 3.5 percent, 14.5 percent below August 2005. The median existing condo price was $223,200 in August, down 2.4 percent from a year earlier.

A SLOWDOWN IS ACKNOWLEDGED, BUT NOT A BUST: In its second quarterly report of 2006, the UCLA Anderson Forecast anticipates a slowdown in real estate across the United States and in California. Forecast Director Edward Leamer does not expect real estate prices to fall significantly. In his view, sales volume is what typically drops, and drops more precipitously than prices, as the price cycle lags behind the volume cycle. The number of homes sold will drop as owners decline to sell in a weak housing market. Prices, however, should hold. The real decline in the housing market, Leamer says, will come in "residential investment," which includes construction of new homes, repair and remodeling, and brokerage commissions on the sale of new and existing homes. The data put recent headlines about home price declines into perspective, said Charles Jolly, president of the San Diego Association of Realtors and a Realtor for more than 30 years. Reports that focus on recent losses are "comparing everything to last year," Jolly maintained. He said he's seen his share of ups and downs in the market; the current state of affairs is just another part of a cycle. He gave an example of a particular San Diego property that sold in 2000 for $345,000 and would have sold for $745,000 in 2005. Today, it would probably sell for less than $700,000, he said.

MOODY'S ECONOMIST OFFERS GRIM FORECAST: Painting one of the darkest scenarios to date of the future of the U.S. market, Moody's Economy.com said in a new report that home price declines in 2007 would approach 20 percent in some areas, where the word "crash" could replace "soft landing," according to Realty Times. The research firm said the median sales price for an existing home will decline in 2007 by only 3.6 percent, which would be the first full-year decline in home prices since the 1930s' Great Depression era. The report said that more than 100 of the nation's 379 metropolitan areas, accounting for nearly half the nation's single-family housing stock, reveal a significant probability of experiencing price declines by the fall of 2007. "The highest probability of price declines is in metro areas throughout California and in and around New York City," Eoncomy.com said. "Probabilities are nearly as high in the rest of the Northeast Corridor, many Florida metro areas, and in sundry areas in the Midwest and Mountain West," the authors state. Economy.com said the findings are based on measures of housing market imbalances that have historically led changes in house prices - housing affordability (or the lack thereof), non-housing related employment growth, the physical supply and demand balance, and a measure of house price over-valuation/under-valuation. "New and existing home sales and single family housing construction are sliding, inventories of unsold homes are surging to new record highs, and house prices are falling in an increasing number of areas," the report said. "Housing's problems began just over a year ago when activity peaked but have increased substantially in recent months. The bright optimism of home buyers, builders and lenders has abruptly devolved into increasingly dark pessimism."

RETIREES PREFER NOT THE WARMTH OF SUN, BUT OF FAMILY: For years, the search for a new home in retirement has been tied to weather and leisure, observes the Wall Street Journal. States such as Arizona and Florida captured the lion's share of transplants, with good reason: They offer a warm climate, lots of sunshine and plenty of golf, tennis and water sports. But today, while weather and leisure remain important, retirees are telling builders, developers and researchers that they are looking primarily for what a community where they can make friends and connections quickly, whether it's a small town or a walkable neighborhood in a big city. A close second and third on the priority lists: a home that's near grandchildren, and a setting where one can indulge a post-work passion, such as a second career, a newly adopted sport or even, for a growing number of people, farming.

OR NOT: According to a study commissioned by publisher Hanley Wood, more than a third of Baby Boomers say their adult children and their own parents are not a consideration in creating their dream homes. Sixty-three percent said enjoying their home after age 60 is a priority above or equal to spending time with the grandchildren, and just 35 percent said they'd relocate to be closer to family and loved ones. "The generation has always been considered selfish," said Frank Anton, chief executive officer of Hanley Wood, a media and information company for the housing and construction industry. "This survey would indicate maybe they're more selfish than anyone knows." Many respondents have a list of dream amenities: Homes that are cozy and comfortable, yet airy and spacious; homes without stairs, but with room for a Stairmaster; living spaces that are energy efficient, but deluxe. They don't want single-age communities, instead looking for opportunities to stay active. "They're saying 'Look, I did my thing. I raised my kids, I was nice to them, I put them through college, I went to their soccer games. Now I want to do my own thing,'" Anton said. The study included 2,000 homeowners between the ages of 50 and 60 with annual household incomes of $100,000 or more. Only about one in five respondents who participated in the study said they would prefer to stay in their current home as it stands today. Thirty-five percent said they would prefer to buy a different or new home to get what they want, while 17 percent were ready to design or build a new home to meet their needs and desires. Fifteen percent were cost-conscious remodelers who plan on upgrading their current home; 12 percent said they planned to purchase a second home. The study also found that these "leading edge" boomers don't seem to be moving en masse toward urban areas, as some have perceived. Of those surveyed, 81 percent said they would rather live in the suburbs or a rural area. For the occasions that their grandchildren do visit, 58 percent said they want their house to be fun for kids, and 52 percent are interested in design features that make the home safe for children.

MORTGAGE RATES FLATTEN OUT: The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.30 percent for the week, barely down from last week's 6.31 percent, according to Freddie Mac. Last year at this time, it was 5.98 percent. This is the lowest the 30-year FRM has been since the week of last March 2, when it averaged 6.24 percent. The 15-year FRM this week was unchanged at 5.98 percent. A year ago, it averaged 5.54 percent, the lowest the 15-year FRM has been since the week ending March 23, when it was 5.97 percent. Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) were unchanged at 6.00 percent this week. One year earlier, the average was 5.48 percent – again, the lowest the five-year ARM has been since the week ending March 23, when it was 5.96 percent. One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs averaged 5.46 percent, down 5.47 percent last week and up from 4.77 percent last year. The one-year ARM has not been lower since the week ending March 23, when it was 5.41 percent. "Mortgage rates fell to a six-month low this past week, and, not surprisingly, home refinancing rose 18 percent last week, accounting for almost half of all mortgage applications," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. "This is due both to the recent decline in mortgage rates and to homeowners who are refinancing ARMs rather than waiting for them to reset in the future when rates may be higher."

THIS WINTER'S HEATING COSTS ARE HEADING DOWN: The price of natural gas has dropped 47 percent since this time last year, and the wholesale price of home heating oil is down 20 percent, reports the Christian Science Monitor in Realtor magazine. If prices don't rise for some unpredictable reason, and if the winter is not unusually cold, homeowners could save as much as $250 compared with last year, some energy analysts estimate. "This is the equivalent of a major tax cut - almost the same as right after 9/11 when the government sent checks to everybody," says Dennis Jacobe, chief economist for the Gallup Organization in Washington. Still, many variables affect whether consumers see any savings, industry representatives warn. "You can't just take prices today or the past week and assume customers will save 40 or 50 percent," says Paul Wilkinson of the American Gas Association in Washington. "We know for the first six months of the year, prices were actually higher than they were for first six months of last year."

COULD THIS BE THE ANSWER TO YOUR PRAYERS: St. Martin Monastery and most of its 560 acres on the outskirts of Rapid City, S.D., is for sale, according to the Rapid City Journal in Realtor magazine. St. Martin was built in 1962 as a monastery and Catholic boarding school, when St. Martin's Academy outgrew the Sturgis convent, which was founded in 1889 by five Swiss nuns. The Rapid City campus included a student dormitory, classrooms, and the monastery's signature stone-and-wood chapel with its soaring roofline. Proposals are due by Nov. 7, so get thee there ASAP. A new building on grounds not included in the sale will house the 33 remaining nuns, whose average age is 73. The current owners are hoping for a buyer who will continue the Benedictines' 117-year history of service to the area. But Sandra Runde, a Rapid City commercial real estate practitioner, believes finding a buyer to use the property as a school or religious facility will be difficult. "It's just about impossible," she says.

AGASSI AND GRAF ARE IN LOVE WITH REAL ESTATE: A company set up by Andre and his wife Steffi has partnered with privately owned Exclusive Resorts, a time-share company headed by AOL co-founder Steve Case, to develop "luxury resort communities," according to the Washington Post. "As I begin the next chapter of my life, I am looking for ways to pursue a career in business, specifically in real estate," Agassi, 36, said in a statement. He indicated that Agassi Graf Development LLC and Exclusive Resorts would co-develop luxury resort communities in the United States and overseas which would have Agassi/Graf tennis and fitness facilities as their central amenities. He will become a senior advisor to the company. Earlier this month Agassi and Graf unveiled plans to develop a luxury mountain project, Fairmont Tamarack, in Donnelly, Idaho, in conjunction with Miami-based Bayview Financial.

SURVEY FINDS OPTIMISM ABOUT REAL ESTATE APPRECIATION: According to consumer survey by RBC Capital Markets Consumer Survey, nearly half of all homeowners still expect at least 5 percent annual increases in their home values over the next few years - down from almost 60 percent last year. The national survey of 1,003 Americans also revealed that 25 per cent of homeowners have already paid off their mortgage. "While real estate expectations are lower than they were last year, consumers still seem optimistic despite what we are seeing in the marketplace," said Scot Ciccarelli, managing director and equity research analysts for RBC Capital Markets. "Declining real estate values could eventually impact consumer spending as people don't feel as wealthy as they used to and become less likely to borrow against the equity they have built up in their homes."

NEW-HOME SALES SURPRISE FORECASTERS: Sales of new single-family homes rose 4.1 percent in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.050 million units, following substantial downward revisions to the sales rate for the previous three months, according to figures released by the U.S. Commerce Department. The preliminary sales pace was down 17.4 percent from a year ago. "The bounce-back in new home sales certainly is a welcome development, although the reported increase was from a downward-revised July level that was the lowest reading since March 2003," said Chief Economist David Seiders of National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). "Many builders still have large inventories of unsold homes, and we expect to see aggressive use of sales incentives over the balance of the year." But the New York Times quoted Chief Economist Stuart Hoffman of PNC Financial as terming the increase a "dead-cat bounce." The inventory of new homes for sale decreased slightly to 568,000 units at the end of August, a 6.6 months' supply at the current sales pace. The median length of time that completed homes for sale were on the market was 3.6 months, the same as the two previous months and down from 3.7 months a year earlier.

HUGE MORTGAGE FRAUD CASE IS REPORTED: Federal and state authorities are investigating allegations of an elaborate mortgage fraud involving about 100 people living in or near the small factory town of Martinsville, Va., who say they unwittingly took out loans to buy houses at inflated prices in Indiana, the Wall Street Journal reports. The borrowers, who include truck drivers, factory workers, a pastor and a hair stylist, say they were duped by acquaintances into signing stacks of documents and didn't know they were applying for loans. Instead, they thought they were joining a risk-free "investment group." Now, many of the loans are in default, the borrowers' credit ratings are in ruins, and lenders are pursuing the organizers of the purported investment group in court. Companies stuck with the defaulting loans include Countrywide Financial, the nation's largest home lender, and Argent Mortgage, another big lender. A lawsuit filed by Countrywide accuses the organizers of acquiring homes and then fraudulently selling them for a quick profit to the Virginia borrowers. Representatives of the borrowers put the total value of loans involved at about $80 million, making it one of the largest mortgage-fraud cases ever. Mortgage fraud, involving loans obtained by providing false information, has mushroomed in recent years as lenders have pushed for speedier loan approvals in an effort to remain competitive and milk maximum profits from the now-fading housing boom. The Federal Bureau of Investigation reported that mortgage fraud led to losses of $1 billion in 2005, up from $429 million a year earlier. And attracted by the ability to obtain large sums quickly, some criminal gangs involved in drug dealing and other street crimes have branched out into mortgage fraud, says Chip Burrus, assistant director of the FBI's criminal investigative division. "It's more profitable and less risky," he says.

HERE'S ONE SMART IDEA: Structured wiring is becoming the trendiest new feature in apartments and single-family homes, observes Realty Times. Coaxial TV cable (RG-6), Category 5E voice and data lines, distributed radio, remote camera security are wired throughout a home into multi-outlet boxes called in the trade, home network centers. The beauty of the system is that it allows one point of origin for connecting all the computers in a home to DSL. With the addition of a control panel, you can pre-set furnace and air-conditioning, lighting to auto-off/on, deliver audio room-by-room, and raise and lower window shades, all by programming your control center. Some systems also allow you to call your home telephone and enter prompts remotely. Structured wiring can be added to an existing home or specified to a new one. The system costs roughly $1,500 in new construction and double in a retro fit.

HOME CONSTRUCTION, RENOVATION OUTPACE INFLATION: Home building and remodeling costs are accelerating faster than overall consumer and business inflation, according to a report by the Associated General Contractors of America, says Dow Jones Business News in Realtor magazine. Boosted by higher metals, concrete and fuel prices, construction prices overall jumped 8.8 percent in August from the same month a year ago. Home construction gained 8 percent, according to the contractors group. "Contractors have been experiencing significant increases in the costs of construction materials and, in some instances, shortages," says Stephen Sandherr, chief executive of the contractors group. "The trend we're seeing is that the inflation rate for material prices is likely to continue to be greater than the Consumer Price Index or the Producer Price Index." During the next six to 12 months, the group expects diesel, plastics and gypsum costs to decline from year-ago, while prices for materials such as asphalt and copper to remain "elevated but not stratospheric."

IN TERMS OF RISING VALUE, THE BIG APPLE IS NOT THE BIGGEST: The real median home value in San Diego jumped from $249,000 to $567,000 between 2000 and 2005, the largest increase in the nation among big cities. Across the country, real median home values soared 32 percent, according to new 2005 American Community Survey data released by the U.S. Census Bureau. Among the nation's largest cities, some of the highest percent increases in real median home values between 2000 and 2005 were found in San Diego (127.2 percent), Los Angeles (110.2) and New York (79.1). Real median selected monthly owner costs for owners with mortgages have increased 5.0 percent nationally between 2000 and 2005. Though not statistically different from each other, some of the highest increases among the largest cities in real median monthly owner costs were found in Detroit (24.1 percent), Chicago (21.7) and San Francisco (19.6). Decreases of about 10 percent in real median homeownership costs were found in some of the smaller cities such as Bryan, Texas, and Greenville, N.C. Additionally, the real median cost of renting a home increased nationally by 6.7 percent from 2000 to 2005. Some of the highest real median rent percentage increases among the large cities were found in San Diego (27.2 percent), Detroit (22.5) and Los Angeles (15.9).

PERHAPS REAL ESTATE BELONGS IN A RETIREMENT PORTFOLIO: According to financial planners and real-estate analysts, most retirement portfolios should include some real estate, the Wall Street Journal reports. That's because land and property are "loosely correlated to the stock market," says Seth Pearson, a certified financial planner in the backwater of Dennis, Mass. In other words, the value of real estate tends to rise when stocks are going down. At the same time, though, real estate should be a relatively small part of most nest eggs, no more than 20 percent of your overall portfolio, Pearson advises. And investors with dreams today of making a killing in residential and commercial property need to lower their expectations - sharply. "You can't figure on returns being what they have been, or you'll be very disappointed," says Christopher Cordaro, a financial planner in Chatham, N.J.

MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS RISE SHARPLY, ESPECIALLY REFIS: For the week ended Sept. 29, loan volume soared 11.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). On an unadjusted basis, the increase was 11.5 percent compared with the previous week and was down 10.9 percent compared with the same week one year earlier. "Refinance applications continue to increase as mortgage rates have declined to their lowest levels since the beginning of the year," observed Mike Fratantoni, MBA's senior director for single family research and economics. Seasonally-adjusted, refinancings went up by 17.5 percent compared with the previous week, while purchase applications grew by 7.6 percent. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 46.7 percent of total applications from 44.3 percent the previous week - the highest that the refinance share has been since February 2005. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 27 percent from 26.4 percent.

TENANTS ARE AMONG BIDDERS FOR STUYVESANT TOWN: A group aligned with tenants of Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper Village submitted a $4.5 billion bid to buy the 110 apartment buildings overlooking the East River in the hope of retaining the complexes as middle-income housing, reports the New York Times. Their offer was neither the highest nor the lowest in one of the biggest real estate auctions of all time. Metropolitan Life, the company that built Peter Cooper Village and Stuyvesant Town in 1947 for returning veterans, got roughly a dozen offers by its Thursday deadline, ranging from $4.3 billion to slightly more than $5 billion, according to real estate executives. The rare opportunity to own 80 acres of prime property in Manhattan and 12,232 apartments has drawn national attention and bids from some of the biggest developers and residential developers in the country, as well as banks and foreign investors. Bidders include Related Companies, the Lefrak Organization and Apollo Real Estate Advisors.

PAULSON MOVES FROM WALL STREET TO MASS AVENUE HEIGHTS: Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, whose job may well end in two years, is the buyer of a home offered for $4.5 million and once owned by former Sen. Jon Corzine, now governor of New Jersey, says the Washington Post. The four-bedroom house in the Massachusetts Heights neighborhood not far from the vice presidential residence has been on the market for many months and has frequently changed hands. Nestled on a woody hillside, gorgeously decorated and boasting a heated swimming pool, the house affords privacy, views and an antique stone fountain.

Perhaps the characteristic that is least appreciated in a house or apartment is flow. Yes, folks may grumble about a long hallway or unusual placement of a doorway, but most buyers naturally focus, at least first, on factors such as the modernity of the kitchen, the number of baths and even the ambience of a lobby. But isn't good flow one of the key elements that make a domicile livable?

Consider the almost unbearably bad layout of a Murray Street penthouse being marketed as "private villa atop Tribeca loft building!" (The exclamation point belongs to the listing broker.) It is hard to imagine a less livable design.

Let's begin at the beginning for this one-, two- or three-bedroom co-op with two and a half baths. Access is through a dingy lobby, unimproved since the building had commercial use, then up to the top floor via a disconcertingly creaky elevator, also seemingly original. But that's not where the apartment is situated. It turns out that the co-op was added to the rooftop, so it is necessary to climb a long flight of stairs; think heavy shopping bags. And still not there! The door at the top opens to a terrace, which charitably might be thought of as kind of a European courtyard, with the front door of the actual apartment in the distance. Think not only shopping bags but a driving rain or summertime sprinkle.

Finally, there is the 1,700-sf apartment. It is on two floors, and the kitchen is up another flight of stairs – a spiral staircase that actually stretches, or perhaps seems to stretch, two stories high. Again, think of those shopping bags. If that hike were not offputting enough, there's the issue of hallways that are too narrow to accommodate two people, even if they move sideways, and awkward turns.

The first floor would be perfect for welcoming overnight guests: It has the modest master so-called suite with walk-in closet and small outdated bath, plus a second, yet smaller, so-called bedroom lacking a single closet. The second bath is off the hallway, conveniently at the base of that spiral staircase. Go up, and you come to the floor with the (miniscule and tired) kitchen and a powder room carved out of a corner, living room with fireplace, a third small "bedroom" without a closet, plus a steel balcony and pergola. There are said to be "rustic details throughout," and that claim certainly overstates the condition of this property, which does, in fairness boast 2,000 square feet of exterior space.

The apartment is listed at a mind-boggling $2.35 million, which would be an excellent price, on the surface, for a Tribeca property. But it is far-fetched for this one, likely explaining why it has been on the market forever.

As almost everyone knows, Tribeca is a downtown Manhattan neighborhood. The name is a syllabic abbreviation of "Triangle Below Canal Street," formally "TriBeCa." It runs roughly from Canal Street south to Park Place and from the Hudson River east to Broadway.

Tribeca was an industrial district, dominated by warehouse structures, that in the last decade has undergone a major revitalization. Many warehouses have been converted to livable residential lofts and new businesses; their emergence makes makes the neighborhood much more like a community than an industrial district. Residents like the neighborhood for its vibrancy, as well as for the solitude and harmony achieved by mixed zoning. Tribeca is now a fashionable residential neighborhood with an affluent population.

Many of the streets are lined with boutique shops and high-end restaurants such as Nobu, Chanterelle and Bouley. Tribeca is also home to the Tribeca Film Festival. The neighborhood is a frequent filming location for movies, including the 1984 hit movie Ghostbusters, which took place in a Tribeca firehouse. Many celebrities reside in Tribeca, including Mariah Carey, Harvey Keitel, M. Night Shyamalan, James Gandolfini, Michael Imperioli and Robert DeNiro. David Letterman has a residence there, as did the late John F. Kennedy Jr.

After 9/11, Tribeca initially suffered financially. However, government grants and incentives provided an infusion of capital and the area rebounded. Amidst the recent real estate boom, Tribeca housing prices outpaced even that of the red-hot Manhattan market as a whole. Forbes Magazine ranked the 10013 zip code in Tribeca as the 12th most expensive zip code in the United States in 2006.

So it is that asking prices are, in the current market, generally high and often higher than buyers are willing to meet: Buyer resistence meets seller resistance. Here are some examples in Tribeca:

Overall prices slipped this quarter but remain higher than price levels seen in the same period a year ago, writes Jonathan Miller of the Miller Samuel appraisal firm in his highlights from his forthcoming formal report. The inventory of apartments available for sale leveled in the quarter after six consecutive quarterly increases but remain higher than the same quarter last year. Falling mortgage rates and stabilization of inventory have not yet provided enough incentive to stimulate increased demand.

Although the number of sales captured in the third quarter rose unexpectedly, the result is partially attributable to the release of co-op data into the public domain mid-quarter and a surge in closings of new development condos. Other points:

Looking a bit rougher than the soft landing housing analysts had been expecting, the current housing downswing is unlikely to lead to economic calamity, according to the National Association of Home Builders. That is largely because interest rates are historically low, the overall economy still is moving ahead, and builders are stepping up efforts to get their unsold inventories under control, opined economists participating in a teleconference hosted by the trade group.

NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders said that he is forecasting an 11.5 percent decline in housing starts this year, followed by another 11.7 percent drop in 2007. Housing should hit bottom by the middle of next year and will be approaching a demographically-based trend production level of about 2 million units in 2008 (including manufactured homes), said he.

Following an unsustainable boom in housing starts, sales and price appreciation in 2004 and 2005, "we need a period of below-trend performance to work off excess inventory and improve housing affordability," Seiders added. "Mortgage rates are dropping; builders and sellers are offering all sorts of incentives and upgrades, energy costs are retreating and the national economy is moving ahead, making it a very good time to buy a home."

Seiders said he is assuming that rates on 30-year mortgages will average about 6.5 percent for some time, pointing out that long-term interest rates have been "performing beautifully" since mid-year. The Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate at the current 5.25 percent into the first half of next year, he said, and probably will move it down to 5 percent by mid-2007.

Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for Global Insight, agreed that a soft landing is "no longer in the cards" for housing. In his view and that of other economists on the call, a slowdown, or even a decline, in home price appreciation will reduce the wealth effects from home equity. But they said the impact on consumer spending and the spillover to the rest of the economy should be relatively modest.

During the recent boom, inflation-adjusted housing prices rose to record levels, and the market is paying the price for that rapid ascent now, with "prices coming down of their own weight," Behravesh said. The current housing downturn "was not triggered by a substantial increase in mortgage rates, which didn't go up that much and are down now and low by historic standards, putting a floor on the housing market."

Looking at fundamentals such as demographics and income growth, housing prices in 70 of the 300 metro areas that his company and National City Bank survey quarterly are overvalued by an average of 30 to 35 percent, the economist declared. Located primarily in the Northeast, Florida and California, these markets can expect to see some downward price adjustments. In Boston, for example, prices could drop 15 percent over the next year or two. At the same time, cities such as Chicago or Houston, where the large run-up in home prices didn't occur, might see continued appreciation at low levels.

Behravesh predicted that prices could drop 5 percent nationally over the next year. "To bring the markets back into equilibrium," he said, "we need sluggish growth in prices for three, four, five years. We have to have home prices rising less than the rate of inflation to get things back into equilibrium. In the last boom and bust, overvalued markets generally were in the same place, and it took them the better part of the decade of the 1990s to see real prices get back to levels that preceded the boom years."

Behravesh said that housing starts will fall into the 1.5- to 1.6-million-unit range as the downturn progresses, "but nothing worse than that." Seiders is looking for a bottom of 1.6 million in mid-2007.

Jim Glassman, managing director for JPMorgan Chase, said that the current housing downswing could proceed faster than expected, and "things could bottom out faster than you see in the numbers." He said further that "a rapid adjustment in prices and the rapid adjustment builders are making in production" could reverse the speculative excesses of the boom market. Annual "housing starts shouldn't go below 1.75 million for long," he continued, "and the long-run trend for housing production is about 2 million units per year."

Strong global economies, record levels of corporate profits in the U.S., a healthy stock market, unraveling energy prices, and falling interest rates are among the "safety nets" for housing during the adjustment period, he said. "Don't be surprised if 30-year mortgages fall back to the 5.75 percent level," said Glassman.

"Most of us will be grateful if housing prices flatten out for a couple of years... This is not your classic interest rate story, so it won't be long before we work though this, recognizing that we are in a transition now," according to him.

Mike Moran, chief economist for Daiwa Securities America, complained about how the news media are portraying housing market conditions as the industry is "going through a correction that's badly needed." The key issue is whether the correction is orderly or disorderly, "and the correction looks orderly even though it's portrayed as a catastrophe in the press," Moran said.

To be continued. . .

Below are just a few of the newest listings of condominiums and cooperatives put on the market by various brokers.

16 E 98th St - 9D, NEW YORK, NY, 10029
$517000
Bedroom(s): 1
Bath(s): 1
Square Feet: 650 SqMt
In the listing agent's inimitable words: "Charming one bedroom off 5th Avenue in elegant Carnegie Hill pre war building. Original details define the grace of this pre war jewel- high ceilings, hardwood floors, windowed kitchen with pass through. Quiet northern exposures on the ninth floor. A lovely communal garden with barbecue for the tenants adds to the buildings charms. State of the art video intercom."
Listing #: 808234

405 W 23rd St - 3K, NEW YORK, NY, 10011
$525000
Bedroom(s): 0
Bath(s): 1
Square Feet: 500 SqMt
In the listing agent's inimitable words: "Intelligent layout, functional design & generous living space, all standard features in this X-large Prewar studio home with a Bed Alcove area. Enjoy the newly renovated windowed kitchen with your favorite cup of joe while watching the city come to life. The south light is exceptional. The renovated prewar bath w/deep tub, mosaic tiled floor and subway tiled walls remind you of a time gone by era. A huge closet w/floor to ceiling doors + dressing area w/ two additional closets allows for maximum storage capabilities. Nothing to do in this beautiful home, just bring your belongings. We'll supply the 1/2 olympic sized indoor heated pool, steam rooms & saunas, planted roof deck w/furniture + outdoor shower, including 360* views of Manhattan's famous landmarks & Hudson River. All amenities described are included in the monthly maintenance in addition to heat, hot water, gas & electric. Our onsite private health club, (low monthly fee) has state of the art equipment, personal trainers and exercise classes. Bike rooms,central laundry facilities and a indoor garage complete this picture. Why do so many people LOVE living in London Terrace Towers? It's a state of mind!"
Listing #: 806831

741 West End Ave - 1A, NEW YORK, NY, 10025
$539000
Bedroom(s): 2
Bath(s): 1
Square Feet:
In the listing agent's inimitable words: "Mint condition two bedroom one bath apartment. Extra high ceilings wood floors and excellent closet space. It's a pleasure to walk into a home so meticulously done and ready to move into. Nestled in the heart of a wonderful west side neighborhood. Gourmet markets, restaurants and cafes abound in this thriving community. Steps to express train service and Riverside Park. Co-purchasing and live work are acceptable. Priced to sell immediately don't miss it."
Listing #: 807170

588 West End Ave - 9C, NEW YORK, NY, 10024
$549000
Bedroom(s): 1
Bath(s): 1
Square Feet: 600 SqMt
In the listing agent's inimitable words: "Warm and inviting NE facing corner apartment in prime WEA bldg! Apt has 9ft clgs, windows in all rooms, and closets and hidden storage areas throughout. In addition, the apt is completely pre-wired for your client's listening pleasures. Floor plan flows easily and lends itself perfectly to living and entertaining in NYC!"
Listing #: 806929

105 W 70th St - 5F, NEW YORK, NY, 10023
$575000
Bedroom(s): 1
Bath(s): 1
Square Feet: 0 SqMt
In the listing agent's inimitable words: "This lovely apartment exudes warmth and an inviting personality immediately upon entering. A pass-through from the renovated kitchen to the living area allows the chef to take part in all festivities. The south-facing living room with large windows provides abundant light throughout the day. One wall is composed of floor-to-ceiling bookshelves offering abundant display and storage options, with the opposite brick wall providing additional interest Climb the winding staircase to discover a small bedroom aerie replete with an elevated storage bed. Very intimate and cozy, its all you need for an enjoyable evening with the stars. Completing this inviting setting is a private deck just outside the elevated bedroom. Come, explore and make this unusual and private space your new home!"
Listing #: 807118

205 E 78th St - 4R, NEW YORK, NY, 10021
$629000
Bedroom(s): 1
Bath(s): 1
Square Feet: 800 SqMt
In the listing agent's inimitable words: "Wonderful opportunity to own a very unique, charming yet spacious 1 bedrooom 1 bath in an exclusive prewar building on the Upper East Side. Step inside the elegant foyer and enjoy the many outstanding features of this apartment; an exquisite woodburning fireplace, high beamed ceilings, moldings, original hardwood floors in pristine condition and generous closets throughout. There is a separate windowed dining area that can easily be converted into a second bedroom. The apartment is in excellent, move in condition. Located steps from some of the finest restaurants, shopping and museums and 2 short blocks from the subway. The maintenance includes all utilites. Pied a terres and co-purchasing permitted. Pet friendly. This is a Full Service Building with a wonderful staff."
Listing #: 503646J

215 E 79th St - 9D, NEW YORK, NY, 10021
$650000
Bedroom(s): 1
Bath(s): 1
Square Feet: 960 SqMt
In the listing agent's inimitable words: "A charmer on many levels, this spacious one bedroom in mint condition features an elegant layout with sunken living room, elevated dining area with bay windows, state-of-the-art kitchen with granite counters and new appliances, generous closets, lots of light, new bath and new windows. Beamed ceilings and gracious foyer give this rare gem a pre-war feeling. The setting for all this is a full service building in a prime Upper East Side location. Apartment Features: North exposure, Full city view, Prewar detail, Beamed ceiling, Floors - parquet, Light - excellent, Windows - new, Modern kitchen, Great closet space."
Listing #: 807895

315 E 72nd St - 4J, NEW YORK, NY, 10021
$675000
Bedroom(s): 1
Bath(s): 1
Square Feet: 900 SqMt
In the listing agent's inimitable words: "Large one bedroom one bathroom co-op facing beautiful tree-lined street. Apartment has parquet floors throughout and lots of closet space. Building offers a full time doorman with laundry on each floor."
Listing #: 807764

300 W 23rd St - 7G, NEW YORK, NY, 10011
$679000
Bedroom(s): 1
Bath(s): 1
Square Feet: 750 SqMt
In the listing agent's inimitable words: "WHAT A LOCATION AND SO MUCH SPACE! Finally an apartment in prime Chelsea location with good light, space and all for a great price. This pre-war one bedroom features a great layout with grand size rooms. An entrance foyer that separates living room and bedroom for more privacy. To top things of you will find high ceilings and lots of closet space. The building designed by Architect Emory Roth has been restored to its best and is now one of the most sought after buildings in Chelsea. Full service 24hour doorman COOP. First showing 04/30 open house"
Listing #: 807830

445 E 86th St - 5B, NEW YORK, NY, 10028
$749000
Bedroom(s): 1
Bath(s): 1
Square Feet: 900 SqMt
In the listing agent's inimitable words: "Junior 4, Co-op with Pre-War feel, a large one bedroom (900+ square feet). Can be converted easily into a 2 bedroom. Renovated Granite kitchen with wood cabinets, stone tile floors, all new appliances. Renovated bathroom stunning slate stone tile floor to ceiling. Beautiful Oak wood floors and crown mouldings throughout, all South exposures. Tree Lined Street, 1 block from Carl Schurz Park, Pet friendly."
Listing #: 807784

1 River Terr - 6K, NEW YORK, NY, 10282
$815000
Bedroom(s): 1
Bath(s): 1
Square Feet: 887 SqMt
In the listing agent's inimitable words: "One bdrm facing Tear Drop Park in new Batter Park City luxury waterfront condominium. Kitchen and bath state of the art, design by David Rockwell. Apartment Features: North exposure, Full garden view, Floors - hardwood, Floors - marble, Light - excellent, Light - good, Windows - oversized, Windows - new, Modern kitchen, Marble bath, Storage space, Walk in closets, Washer/dryer, Dishwasher Building Features: Exercise room, Childrens room, Central laundry room, Valet, Health club"
Listing #: 902945J

303 W 66th St - 16DW, NEW YORK, NY, 10023
$829000
Bedroom(s): 2
Bath(s): 1
Square Feet: 950 SqMt
In the listing agent's inimitable words: "THE BEST 2BR VALUE IN THE LINCOLN CENTER NEIGHBORHOOD! Situated conveniently in the sought after Lincoln Center area, this lovely two bedroom has it all. This sleek contemporary high floor sundrenched apt has the ideal layout with a spacious living room, separate dining area and a large 80 sq ft balcony facing west with river and dramatic sunset views. The apartment has been meticulously renovated with all new crown and baseboard moldings, refinished hardwood floors, and a marble bath with beautiful mosaic tile flooring. The stunning kitchen features cherry custom cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, granite countertops and even a water filtering system. This perfect home is located in a full service coop with a private driveway, 24 hour doorman, community/childrens room, bike room, new laundry rooms and best of all: extremely low maintenance that includes all utilities! Steps from Lincoln Center, the best restaurants, all transportation, and the beautifully restored Riversid Apartment Features: West exposure, Balcony, Full city view, Partial river view, Floors - hardwood, Light - excellent, Modern kitchen, Renovated bathroom, Marble bath, Great closet space, Dishwasher Building"
Listing #: 808311

328 W 86th St - 7A, NEW YORK, NY, 10024
$849000
Bedroom(s): 2
Bath(s): 1.5
Square Feet: 950 SqMt
In the listing agent's inimitable words: "This beautiful sun-flooded two bedroom corner home features an entry foyer, a windowed eat-in kitchen, basket weave oak flooring,one and a half baths, each with a window, and pre war details. East, west and southern exposures fill this quiet apartment with light. Located in a pre war coop with a live-in super, laundry and storage in the building. This pet friendly coop is located steps from Riverside Park, near the 1 train and the 86th street crosstown bus as well as all services and many fine restaurants. Apartment Features: East exposure, South exposure, West exposure, Full city view, Partial city view, Prewar detail, Beamed ceiling, Floors - hardwood, Light - excellent, Windows - new, Great closet space, Dishwasher"
Listing #: 808047

123 W 74th St - 5C, NEW YORK, NY, 10023
$849000
Bedroom(s): 2
Bath(s): 1.5
Square Feet: 0 SqMt
In the listing agent's inimitable words: "Bright, tranquil, and spacious, this prewar home features bucolic tree-top views and a comforting flow. The windowed, renovated kitchen leads to a generous dining area just off the wide living room, which opens through French doors to a large master bedroom. The apartment has a washer/dryer and one and a half baths, each with a window. Built in 1924, this intimate well-established coop is meticulously maintained, fiscally and physically. Monthly chages are extremely low! There is a common garden, plus storage and laundry facilities, video security, and a live-in superintendent. Located in the P.S.87 school district, near Fairway, Citarella and Zabars; Lincoln Center, Central and Riverside Parks, and The American Museum of Natural History, this tree-lined block is a short walk to the best of the Upper West Side. An express subway station is steps away. This is a rare opportunity for a discriminating buyer. 50% financing allowed. Apartment Features: North exposure, South exposure, West exposure, Full garden view, Prewar detail, Beamed ceiling, Floors - hardwood, Floors - parquet, Light - excellent, Windows - new, Walk in closets, Great closet space, Washer/dryer, Dishwasher"
Listing #: 901612J

57 E 75th St - 2F, NEW YORK, NY, 10021
$850000
Bedroom(s): 1
Bath(s): 1.5
Square Feet: 855 SqMt
In the listing agent's inimitable words: "Unique sun filled multi-level Coop apartment located in the East 70s, steps from Central Park on one of the nicest blocks between Madison and Park Avenues. A private keyed elevator with a video TV security system leads you up to the entry level where there is a powder room and a new eat-in kitchen with a washer/dryer. Step up to the living room with a wood burning fireplace, four large windows with three exposures, plus a Juliet planting balcony. Step up again to a bedroom, dressing area and a full bath complete with Jacuzzi tub and bidet. This apartment has incredible closet and storage space and is in excellent move-in condition. Pied-a-Terre's allowed. No pets allowed."
Listing #: 807308

400 E 85th St - 20E, NEW YORK, NY, 10028
$875000
Bedroom(s): 2
Bath(s): 2
Square Feet: 1200 SqMt
In the listing agent's inimitable words: "Dramatic open city & skyline views to the North & West from this family sized two bedroom two bath find. Beautifully renovated windowed kitchen with granite counters. Fantastic layout offers a grand living room with custom built-ins, crown moldings, a washer/dryer, and still plenty of room for a dining table. Great family neighborhood, convenient to transportation, shopping, restaurants and Carl Schurz park. Zoned for the award-winning P.S. 290 - Manhattan New School. Full service building with 24 hour doorman, new red brick facade, garage & bike storage. Pets are welcome."
Listing #: 806942

55 E 93rd St - 5A, NEW YORK, NY, 10128
$1100000
Bedroom(s): 2
Bath(s): 1.5
Square Feet: 889 SqMt
In the listing agent's inimitable words: "Location! Location! Steps to Central Park this charming 2 bedroom apartment is located in The Alamo, a turn-of-the century condominium, with newly renovated lobby and hallways. The apartment is bright and sunny. It features a large living room, a renovated kitchen, a bathroom and a powder room , both renovated, hardwood floors and high ceilings. Apartment Features: East exposure, North exposure, South exposure, Full city view, Floors - hardwood, Light - excellent, Modern kitchen, Renovated bathroom, Storage space"
Listing #: 807163

536 W 111th St - 67, NEW YORK, NY, 10025
$1200000
Bedroom(s): 3
Bath(s): 2
Square Feet: 1460 SqMt
In the listing agent's inimitable words: "Spacious family home, a convertible 4BR/2Bths, in the Columbia University area, near buses & subway, shopping & restaurants. Bright, happy looking, with a gracious layout, it faces N & S, and has the view of the quiet street. Apt. is particularly attractive for those who are raising children, love to cook, work from home, play a piano and love space. There are presently 2 big BRs. 3rd BR is presently combined with LR, but may be easily separated. There is an FDR, convertible into the 4th BR, awindowed EIK & Maids room, either of which also may serve as the 4th BR or an office. The layout allowes a great variaty of options, to accomodate all needs. It needs good work, but worth it Built in 1909, the building is both fire- and soundproof. Play your drums or piano! Pets OK. Resident super, elevator, kids play room, party room, storage, laundry, bike room, common garden."
Listing #: 808312

179 E 79th St - 14A, NEW YORK, NY, 10021
$1295000
Bedroom(s): 2
Bath(s): 2
Square Feet: 1300 SqMt
In the listing agent's inimitable words: "NEW TO MARKET -- A rare opportunity in a much sought after pre-war coop, this 2 bedroom / 2 bath classic home on a high floor is flooded with sunlight from the Southern exposure. The spacious windowed eat-in gourmet kitchen includes a Viking stove, Subzero refrigerator, 50-bottle wine cooler, and marble countertops. Truly move-in condition with formal foyer, 9-ft beamed ceilings, brass hardware, renovated baths, finished parquet floors, and lots of original details. Building features 24-hour doorman, bike room, and storage. Dogs up to 20-lbs permitted. PS 6. Apartment Features: South exposure, Full city view, Prewar detail, Beamed ceiling, Floors - hardwood, Light - excellent, Windows - new, Modern kitchen, Renovated bathroom, Storage space, Dishwasher. "
Listing #: 807655

207 E 57th St - 8B, NEW YORK, NY, 10022
$1799000
Bedroom(s): 2
Bath(s): 2.5
Square Feet: 1423 SqMt
In the listing agent's inimitable words: "This contemporary beauty features floor-to-ceiling windows, with generous spaces, and a huge sunny south-facing living room/dining room! An artfully designed gourmet corner kitchen with island faces into the dining area. The bright spacious north-facing master bedroom has a large, luxurious private bath, walk-in closet, and floor-to-ceiling windows. The second bedroom is also spacious and north-facing, with a large private bathroom. An impressive gallery space connects the entryway with the living/dining room, kitchen, one-half bath, and the two bedrooms. The apartment is floored in rich mahogany, boasts ample closets, Viking kitchen appliances, and a washer/dryer. Place 57 is a brand new full-service building with amenities including: State-of-the-Art Fitness Center with stunning Baccarat lighting, Resident's Lounge adjacent to Baccarat Crystal Garden. Children's thematically designed Play Room and Individual Resident Storage."
Listing #: 807538

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