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Happy Holidays! This newsletter will return to its regular bi-weekly schedule Jan. 5. Meantime, we'll be hard at work in New York City and the D.C. metro area, happy to help anyone who is even just thinking of moving. See you in the New Year! IN THIS ISSUE:
The Mortgage Biz RATES DROP YET AGAIN TO THE LOWEST IN ALMOST A YEAR: The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.11 percent for the week, down from last week's average of 6.14 percent, according to Freddie Mac. This is the lowest the 30-year FRM has been since Jan. 19, when it averaged 6.10 percent. The 15-year FRM this week was 5.84 percent, down from 5.87 percent the previous week and from 5.87 percent a year ago - the lowest since the week ended Feb. 9, when it averaged 5.83 percent. Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) were 5.92 percent this week in comparison with last week's 5.95 percent and last year's 5.78 percent. This is the lowest it has been since Feb. 9, when it was 5.89 percent. One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs averaged 5.43 percent this week, down from 5.46 percent last week but higher than 5.16 percent a year earlier. This is the lowest the one-year ARM has been since March 23, when it averaged 5.41 percent. "Continued signs of slowing in the housing market and weakness in the manufacturing sector helped keep mortgage rates down this week," remarked Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. "Looking forward in the housing market, we think that housing is about two-thirds of the way through the correction, and should stabilize by mid-year 2007." CONFORMING LOAN LIMIT IS RAISED: The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight Director announced that the maximum 2007 conforming loan limit for single-family mortgages purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will remain at the 2006 level of $417,000 for one-unit properties for most of the U.S. By law, the maximum conforming loan limit is based on the October-to-October change in the average house price in the Monthly Interest Rate Survey (MIRS) of the Federal Housing Finance Board (FHFB). The FHFB reported the decline in the average price was $501, or 0.16 percent, from $306,759 in October 2005 to $306,258 in October 2006. It was the first decline in the MIRS since 1992-93. WITH A WINK, THEY APPLY FOR MORTGAGES: Did you ever wonder why so many people opt for "no doc" and "low-doc" home mortgages that do not require verification of income or assets? asks Kenneth Harney in the Washington Post. Traditionally, reduced-documentation loans were used by small business owners and self-employed professionals with complicated corporate profiles, partnership interests and irregular income patterns because of bonuses or commissions. Documenting income and assets for them was a big hassle and they welcomed loan programs that allowed them simply to demonstrate that they had good credit histories and adequate real estate collateral - even if they paid a slightly higher interest rate for the mortgage. But a new research study suggests that today's low-doc borrowers - who represent more than 16 percent of all new mortgage volume this year - may have other objectives in mind. The study, sponsored by Inside Mortgage Finance, an industry trade publication, and conducted by market research firm Campbell Communications, found that more than one of every six low- or no-doc borrowers is hiding income from the IRS. They may assure the loan officer that they got $150,000 a year in annual income and can afford a big mortgage on a big house. But they report only $75,000 in income on their federal tax filings, and they don't want anything on the record that might alert the IRS. The study, which polled a representative sample of 2,140 mortgage brokers active in the reduced-documentation field, also found that low-doc borrowers no longer are mainly self-employed professionals. Thirty-nine percent of all low-doc borrowers are salaried wage-earners who could easily produce a W-2 form if required. That's the identical percentage as self-employed borrowers. When brokers were asked why their clients chose the low-doc route, more than 70 percent of them said a "significant" reason was that part of their income came from "a household member with poor credit." Nearly two-thirds of brokers said a significant number of their clients were "self-employed with unreported income," and 45 percent said their self-employed clients had "not filed tax returns." COUNTRYWIDE AGREES TO BOLSTER FAIR LENDING PROCESS: Under an agreement with the New York attorney general's office, Countrywide Home Loans will substantially enhance its fair lending monitoring activities; compensate minority borrowers who were improperly given certain costly loans; and institute a $3 million consumer education program that will provide New Yorkers with the tools necessary to make informed choices about mortgage loan products. WITH RATES DECLINING, MORTGAGE ACTIVITY IS RISING: For the week ended Dec. 1, mortgage loan application volume went up by 8.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. On an unadjusted basis, the increase was 52 percent compared with the previous week and 1.9 percent compared with the same week one year earlier. Refinancings grew by 13.7 percent over the previous week and purchase applications, by 4.9 percent. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 50.1 percent of total applications from 46.9 percent the previous week, its highest level since April 2004. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share fell to 23.9 from 24.5 percent, its lowest level since October 2003. The Market PENDING SALES DIP AGAIN: Pending home sales for October slipped 1.7 percent from September and 13.2 percent from a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors. The latest Pending Home Sales Index is at a reading of 107.2. The year-over-year decline has narrowed from the previous two months: In September, the index was 13.6 percent below a year earlier, while in August the decline was 14.0 percent. Said David Lereah, NAR's chief economist: "It appears to be stabilizing, and comparisons with an unsustainable boom mask the fact that home sales remain historically high. They'll stay that way through 2007." The index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, the first year to be examined and the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales. There is a closer relationship between annual changes in the index and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons. SALES OF PREVIOUSLY OWNED HOMES EASE FROM A YEAR AGO: And prices slipped. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), total existing-home sales - including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops - rose 0.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.24 million units in October from September. But activity was 11.5 percent below the 7.05 million-unit level in October 2005. "The present level of home sales demonstrates some confidence in the market, but sales are lower than sustainable due to psychological factors," observed David Lereah, NAR's chief economist. He added that many buyers remained on the sidelines despite a favorable environment, including declining mortgage interest rates. "After a period of price adjustment, we'll see more confidence in the market, and a lift to home sales should be apparent in the first quarter of 2007," Lereah predicted. The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $221,000 in October, down 3.5 percent from one year earlier, when the median price spiked above adjacent months to $229,000. "The annual decline in the October median home price is skewed because there was an uncharacteristic spike in October 2005, but the trend for the fourth quarter will be prices remaining slightly below a year ago. Overall prices are projected to see modest appreciation around early spring," Lereah says. At the same time, the supply rose. Total housing inventory levels increased 1.9 percent at the end of October to 3.85 million existing homes available for sale, representing a 7.4-month supply at the current sales pace. Single-family home sales rose 1.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.5 million in October from September, but they were 11 percent below October 2005. The median existing single-family home price was $221,300 in October, down 3.4 percent from a year earlier. Existing apartment housing sales fell 4.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 741,000 units in October from September and were off 14.5 percent from October 2005. The median existing condo price was $214,300 in October, 5.3 percent lower than the previous year. AND SALES OF NEW SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES DECLINE: U.S. Commerce Department figures show that the sales pace dipped 3.2 percent for October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.004 million units, equivalent to the average rate for the third quarter of the year. Commented Chief Economist David Seiders of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB): "Aggressive sales efforts by builders, combined with historically low mortgage interest rates and solid growth in employment and household income, have buoyed housing affordability in recent months. Indeed, surveys of consumer sentiment show that home buying conditions improved markedly in both October and November." The inventory of new homes for sale fell for the third consecutive month in October to 558,000 units, equivalent to a 7.0 months' supply at the current sales pace. Completed homes for sale were nearly 30 percent of the inventory, while units still under construction represented 54 percent of the inventory and units for sale that were permitted but not yet started represented more than 16 percent of the inventory level. While completed units have been a rising share of total homes for sale, the median length of time that completed homes were on the market was only 3.8 months in October, down from 4.0 months a year earlier. FEDS REPORT SLOWING PRICE APPRECIATION: U.S. home prices rose in the third quarter of this year, but the rate of increase continued to slow and some areas experienced actual price declines, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO). Nationally, home prices were 7.73 percent higher in the third quarter of 2006 than they were one year earlier. Appreciation for the most recent quarter was 0.86 percent, or an annualized rate of 3.45 percent, reflecting reflects a further slowdown from that reported for the second quarter, when the quarterly appreciation rate was 1.3 percent and the annualized rate was 5.1 percent. The quarterly increase is the lowest since the second quarter of 1998. "Our newest data confirm last quarter's data that the housing market is in a decidedly different stage," said OFHEO Director James B. Lockhart. "With U.S. house prices growing less than one percent during the third quarter, it provides more evidence that the long-forecasted national deceleration in house prices is occurring. Given the five-year appreciation prior to this quarter of 56.8 percent, the slowdown is not unexpected. There are still some areas where appreciation rates remain very high but now they are the exception rather than the norm." Since the spring of 2004, year-over-year house price appreciation has fallen from a peak of 13.9 percent to 7.7 percent this quarter. Despite the deceleration, house prices grew faster over the past year than did prices of non-housing goods. "House prices continued to rise through the third quarter in most of the country, but generally at only low or moderate rates," said OFHEO Chief Economist Patrick Lawler. "The transition from sizzling markets to normal or weak markets has been orderly so far, and recent drops in interest rates lessen the likelihood that precipitous changes will occur." A LOOK BACK IS HEARTENING: If you think the housing market is bad this year, perhaps you've forgotten the first part of the 1980s or 1991, suggests BusinessWeek Online in Realtor magazine. The year 1991 was the worst year for total housing starts, which tumbled to 1.013 million. January was the worst month of the year with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of just 798,000. An economic recession in the early 1980s was signaled by falling housing starts in 1981 and 1982, the third- and second-worst years on record, respectively. Interest rates hit an all-time high at this time, approaching 20 percent, as the Federal Reserve Board tightened monetary policy to control the stagflation that characterized the previous decade. There have been seven housing cycles prior to the current cycle, in the time period between 1959 and the present, and the average peak-to-trough decline of these seven cycles is 47.3 percent, according to research by Paul Kasriel, director of economic research at the Northern Trust in Chicago. In the current cycle, housing starts have declined 34 percent from their peak in February 2005 to October 2006, levels. If the peak-to-trough decline in the current cycle were to match the seven-cycle average decline of 47.3 percent, the annualized pace would need to bottom out at 1.166 million units, substantially below the October 2006 seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.486 million, "I think we're going to at least see an average cycle in terms of starts, and housing is going to have a significant ripple affect on the rest of the economy, slowing down employment growth and consumer spending," Kasriel said. "Everybody tries to put lipstick on this pig, but it's a pig." Can you smell the bacon? PERHAPS IT'S A GOOD TIME TO BE AN INVESTOR: As a weak housing market nudges the foreclosure rate higher, next year is looking promising for investors in distressed real estate, reports the Wall Street Journal. Lenders stuck with foreclosed property are becoming more inclined to slash prices or sell properties through auctions, industry experts say. "We're all going to have to be more creative in the next 12 to 24 months" in selling foreclosed homes, says Chad Neel, president and chief operating officer of Fidelity National Asset Management Solutions in Florida. Williams & Williams Inc., a Tulsa-based auctioneer, says its sales of foreclosed homes will nearly double this year to about 5,060. Dean Williams, chief executive of the auction firm, expects another near doubling of sales in 2007. Dallas-based Hudson & Marshall Inc. expects its auction sales of foreclosed properties to total about 4,800 this year, up 23 percent from 2005. David Webb, co-owner of the auction company, believes sales will rise at least 20 percent in 2007. The auction firms say their busiest auction markets recently have included Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Texas and Colorado. "Word on the street is that California, Florida and Arizona will also be very active in the next 12 months," Webb says. Lenders refer to foreclosed homes as REO, short for "real-estate owned." They generally try to sell REO homes as quickly as possible to minimize holding costs, such as those for insurance, taxes and lawn care. In the first half of 2006, REO properties accounted for 3.1 percent of all U.S. home sales, up from 2.4 percent two years earlier, according to a study by First American Real Estate Solutions, a unit of First American Corp. The study found that those homes sold at a median discount of 14 percent to their estimated value in the first half, compared with 12.5 percent two years before. Still, if you decide to take the plunge, you'd better have a deep pool. The Soothsayers IS THE WORST OVER, ASKS THE WALL STREET JOURNAL: Yes, economists said by nearly 2-to-1 in the latest of the online Journal's economic forecasting survey. But they still predict that the average selling price of a house will fall next year. The 49 economists responding to the survey expect home prices, measured by the government's Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight index, to rise 2.8 percent this year and to fall by 0.5 percent next year. That contrasts with a 13.4 percent increase in 2005. "We're nearing the end of the slowdown for most markets," said Ethan S. Harris at Lehman Brothers. Prices still have some ways to fall before they'll stabilize, but there are signs that most drastic parts of the downturn - marked by a sharp pullback in demand and new construction - have run their course. The economists' predictions for home prices next year vary widely, from an increase of 7 percent, predicted by Kurt Karl and Arun Raha of Swiss Re, to a 10 percent decline, expected by Maury Harris of UBS. Harris, for his part, said he expects a large inventory of vacant newly constructed homes to push prices lower in the first half. Construction companies "built much more than were justified because of investor interest," he said. While 20 economists predicted home prices would rise next year, 24 forecast a decline. Just eight of the economists forecast gains greater than 2.1 percent, which is their average forecast for consumer-price inflation through mid-2007. Richard DeKaser, an economist at National City Corp., a big mortgage provider, said he thinks the worst is over. "We're starting to see inventories topping out and possible declining," he said, forecasting a 4.4 percent increase in prices this year and a 1.8 percent decline next. The housing market, of course, doesn't move uniformly across the country; some regions or individual cities often have price changes decidedly above or below the national average. Harris of Lehman expects price declines next year to be confined to "bubble" markets such as those in Florida, California and cities in Nevada and Arizona, where large numbers of investors have artificially inflated prices. "There's no reason for prices to be falling in areas without a bubble," he said. "People are just slowing down purchase decisions." Allen Sinai, at Decision Economics Inc., also believes the worst is over, but he feels housing remains a big risk to the economy. "People say all bubbles end in disaster, but this is a small bubble. Home prices are just about 20 percent too high. We need to take it seriously, but in the history of bubbles, this will go down as one of the smaller ones," said Lehman's Harris. NO, RESPONDS THE ANDERSON FORECAST: In its third quarterly report of 2006, the UCLA Anderson Forecast says that while "the economy is about to get bumpy as the housing market continues to deteriorate." The report titled, "Soft Landing with Turbulence Ahead," notes that home sales are off 12 percent and housing starts off 26 percent from their respective peaks, making it clear that the housing market is in a major cyclical decline. "It is only a matter of time before nominal home prices are down on a year-over-year basis," writes UCLA Anderson Forecast Senior Economist David Shulman. Forecast Director Edward Leamer added that the disconnect between home prices and affordability became pronounced in the past five years, and it is "going to take some time" for pricing to return to more sustainable levels. "I think the boom was a fairly normal one in the 1990s and didn't really get out of control until 2002 . . . [when] we had five years of extraordinary appreciation," he declared, according to Inman News. The forecast report calls for housing starts to bottom-out at an annual rate of 1.4 million in second-quarter 2007, compared with a rate of about 2 million units per year during the boom. New-home prices are expected to hit a low in third-quarter 2007 at about 10 percent less than the current prices, Leamer's report states, with existing-home prices "expected to nudge down a bit, but not nearly as much as new-home prices." BUT THE NAR PAINTS A ROSIER PICTURE, AS ALWAYS: Existing-home sales are projected to fall by about 9 percent this year. New home sales are expected to fall by almost 17 percent. "But take heart - the worst may be over," says David Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR). As we enter the new year, further contraction in the housing industry may be limited, he continues, adding that "the signs are out there - but you need to look." You can judge his conclusions yourself by reading his full commentary below. STATISTICS MAY CLOUD THE PICTURE, SAYS BUSINESS WEEK: Clearly, some of the housing-related data of late have looked alarming, especially the surprisingly large drop in October housing starts, acknowledges BusinessWeek Online. But that decline might have been an exaggeration. The huge 26.4 percent plunge in new home starts in the South was one of the largest on record for that region. Several analysts say the swoon might have been due to exceptionally wet weather in that region. If so, the weakness may well reverse in November. Right now, it is important to separate the demand-side reports from those on the supply side. Several sales indicators appear to be stabilizing even as builders work through their stocks of unsold homes by cutting new construction and prices. Construction cutbacks will most likely continue through the winter, but the apparent bottoming out on the demand side is an important barometer of the eventual turnaround in new building. Strengthening demand is particularly noticeable in the new-home market, where sales increased in both August and September, the first two-month rise in a year and a half. Lower mortgage rates and the increasing willingness of sellers to drop their prices are a big part of the story. The most favorable sign that demand for homes will continue to firm comes from weekly mortgage applications to buy a house. Not only have applications stopped falling, their three-month average is now rising after declining steeply for more than a year. The applications statistics foreshadow data on housing sales, and sales are what drive new building. Even builders are starting to see some movement on the part of buyers. After hitting a 15-year low in September, the index of housing market conditions, based on a survey by the National Association of Home Builders, edged up in both October and November. The NAHB surveys builders on current sales, expected demand, and buyer traffic through model homes. Their November report on current sales edged up slightly, but sales expectations rose significantly, and they noted increased traffic of prospective buyers. Home and Hearth A DOG'S HOME NOW CAN BE A CASTLE: Doggie Mansions, a company in West Palm Beach, Fla., builds designer doghouses priced anywhere from $10,500 to $100,000, according to Newhouse News Service in Realtor magazine. Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer is among the company's customers. He spent $25,000 on a two-story, brick-faced Doggie Mansion for his three dogs - two Rottweilers, Chuck and Homer, and a Maltese named Muffin. The 8-by-10-foot luxury dog retreat is equipped with air conditioning, a brushed micro-velvet suede couch, ceramic tile floors, large arched windows, a flat-screen plasma TV that loops classic canine movies like "Benji" and "Rin Tin Tin" and, of course, football-shaped doggie beds. The mansions take two to four weeks to build, and can be shipped around the world. The company's Web site, doggiemansions.com, includes listings of dog houses. Best of all, the enterprise pays real estate agents a 10 percent commission for a sale. Says Stacy Small, who goes by the title Chief Barketing Officer of the company: "This way we can have a sales force in place." So, call already! EVEN AN APARTMENT OWNER SHOULD HAVE INSURANCE: The master policy of a condo will cover problems and issues relating to the common elements and the limited common elements, notes Benny Kass in the Washington Post. For example, if there is a common-element water pipe that bursts, causing flooding and water damage to the common halls, elevators and individual units, the master policy will pay the damage claims, less the insurance deductible specified by the policy. However, the master policy does not provide all-inclusive coverage. What if the water flooded into your apartment, damaged your walls, ruined your carpet and destroyed your expensive 50-inch plasma television set? The master policy will pick up the cost to repair your walls, but you are on your own regarding any personal belongings. Additionally, most master policies exclude improvements, or what is known as "betterments." If you have the original floors in your unit, coverage will probably be available should they get damaged as a result of the flooding. But if you (or your predecessor) installed parquet flooring, the "betterment" will not be covered under the master policy. Here is where an insurance policy known as an "H0-6" comes into play. This is a separate policy that will cover your personal losses. It should also supplement what the master policy does not cover, such as theft in your apartment, vandalism and personal liability coverage. The cost of such insurance is relatively low, generally $250 to $300 a year. VISIT
THESE COOL NEW WEB SITES: One
is city.ask.com/city, which seems to be evolving. Although somewhat lacking
in comprehensiveness, the offspring of ask.com lets you find restaurants,
a variety of other businesses, events, movies and a range of other diversions
by neighborhood, displaying pushpins on a map as detailed as you may wish.
Even more impressive is nyc.gov/citymap, which shows a range of neighborhood
amenities on an excellent map, including subway entrances, libraries,
greenmarkets, school locations and even wi-fi hotspots. Both sites are
well worth a look. THIRD QUARTER SEES RISE IN MANHATTAN APARTMENT PRICES: Median prices for Manhattan apartments (both co-ops and condos) jumped six percent to $767,000 in the third quarter compared with a year ago, according to the Real Estate Board of New York (REBNY). Northern Manhattan condo prices were up 60 percent to $558,000, and East Side condominiums jumped 45 percent to $1,350,000. The report also showed that co-operatives' median sales prices on the East Side rose 3 percent to $856,000 and downtown coop units rose 20 percent to $662,000. Said Steven Spinola, REBNY's president: "We expect to see continued gains in the fourth quarter of 2006 and into 2007." Among other key findings in the report: The median price per square foot for condominiums rose one percent to $1,022; the neighborhood with the highest median price per square foot was the East Side, where a 9 percent rise brought the level to $1,100; the West Side's average per square foot was the next highest at $1,050; and median prices of condos 851-1,000 square feet rose by 10.6 percent, units 1,001-1,800 square feet increased 5.5 percent, median sales prices of those 1,801-2,000 square feet fell 6.7 percent and units more than 2,000 square feet dropped by 8.7 percent. DISPARITIES SEEN IN PROPERTY TAX BURDEN: They have widened, with many homeowners in affluent areas disproportionately benefiting from tax breaks, an analysis has found, according to the New York Times. The analysis, by the city's Independent Budget Office, found that many owners of condominiums and co-ops - especially on the Upper East Side and Upper West Side, benefit from an arcane provision of state law that artificially deflates the assessed value of their apartments. And house owners in two Brooklyn neighborhoods where home prices have risen markedly, Park Slope and Carroll Gardens, have the lowest effective tax rates of any part of the city, because assessment caps have blocked taxes from keeping pace with the huge rise in market values. The caps have also helped other Brooklyn neighborhoods such as Ocean Hill-Brownsville, Bushwick and Bedford-Stuyvesant, where home prices have soared at an even higher rate. The term "effective tax rate" means the tax per $100 of market value. Among other key findings: Renters live in buildings that are taxed more heavily, with the effective tax rate now 5.5 times the rate for co-ops, compared with 1.8 times in 1997; while one-, two- and three-family homes account for 41 percent of the market value of all city property, they generate less than 14 percent of property tax revenues; the effective tax rate for homeowners has actually fallen 65 percent since 1984 - even after an 18.5 percent property tax increase phased in in 2003 and 2004 - but the effective tax rate for owners of commercial property has dropped only 18 percent; the city collects 51.6 percent of its property taxes from owners of residential property and 48.4 percent from owners of nonresidential property, a far smaller difference than in other big cities - for example Los Angeles (73.1 percent and 26.9 percent), Houston (62.4 percent and 37.6 percent) and Philadelphia (69 percent and 31 percent). "The burden of paying the property tax is not shared equally among owners of residential property and, in many cases, these disparities are widening," said Ronnie Lowenstein, director of the Independent Budget Office. Research PERHAPS IT'S SAFE THERE, BUT IS THERE A THERE THERE: According to the Farmers Insurance Group, the most secure location to live in the U.S. is the Richland-Kennewick-Pasco area in southeast Washington State. The rankings, compiled by database experts at bestplaces.net, took into consideration crime statistics, extreme weather, risk of natural disasters and job loss numbers in 331 U.S. municipalities. The 2005 study divided the communities into three groups: large metropolitan areas, mid-size cities and small towns. "Living, working and raising a family in a safe, secure area is important to many people," said Farmers spokesman Jeff Beyer. "It's a form of protection. Whether it's employment security, a stable climate or a low crime rate, we'd all like to find a place to live or work that provides us that feeling of wellbeing." The top-ranked area, with a population that places it in the mid-size cities category, lies at the confluence of the Snake, Yakima and Columbia rivers just 15 miles from the Oregon border. With nearly 300 days of sunshine and just 6.5 inches of rain per year, it is in the heart of Washington's wine country and produces 99 percent of the state's wine grapes. The area scored high in recent job growth and rarely endures tornadoes, hurricanes, high winds or hail. Nassau and Suffolk Counties, N.Y., topped all large metropolitan areas with populations of 500,000 or greater. The most secure small town with a population of 150,000 or fewer is Bismarck, N.D. CONDO LIVING MAY BE BIG, BUT NOT MOST OF THE CONDOS: Of the nation's nearly 6 million condominiums, only 28 percent are in buildings with five or more units, according to a profile of the nation's nearly 6 million condominiums by the Mortgage Bankers Association, says Realty Times. The profile is based on data from the Census Bureau's 2005 American Housing Survey. Townhouses make up the largest single block of condominiums. As a result, 59 percent of all condos are in the suburbs. Just 32 percent are considered city dwellings, and 9 percent are outside metro areas. This and That WHO'LL TAKE MANH - WEST NYACK: BusinessWeek Online will. In a ranking of the nation's 25 most affordable suburbs, it was cited as New York City's topmost. About a 30-minute drive from Manhattan, West Nyack is one of five villages and hamlets that make up an area on the western bank of the Hudson River known as "The Nyacks." The neighborhood, which has a median home price of $605,700 (vs. New York City's $963,700), is perhaps known best as the location of Palisades Center, the largest shopping mall in the New York metropolitan area. And that's a distinction bound to spur envy among the most jaded residents of other cities. CONAN'S LOOKING UP: Conan O'Brien has signed a contract for a corner penthouse at the Majestic, according to a source with knowledge of the deal, reports the New York Observer. It was listed for $9.95 million. According to city records, he already has a combined aerie in the Upper West Side building, where the late mobster Frank Costello reputedly had a 17-room place overlooking Central Park. The source who confirmed the deal said the new penthouse is immediately above it, which means that Conan and spouse could potentially make a duplex if the co-op board gave its approval. TAX TIP: A recent IRS private letter ruling indicates that investing an IRA distribution in real estate makes the rollover taxable, say analysts for the Kiplinger Tax Letter, according to Realtor magazine. The ruling suggests that investors who want to invest IRA funds in real estate seek an independent custodian that offers real estate as an investment option. That's because the custodian can buy property, but the investor won't be able to use it either for business or personal use. Those
Luxury Locations J.P. Morgan had a point Who wouldn't drool over a Manhattan pad with acres of space, towering ceilings, excessively employed marble and granite, expanses of exotic woods, kitchens replete with Gaggenau, Bosch, Miele or Viking appliances, and (not "or") a veritable selection of terraces and decks? Such are not the merely upper-end apartments on the market: This is the luxury market, in which the average price in the last quarter was a heady $4.5 million - and a bargain at that, down from $5 million during the near-record months of April, May and June - yet 18 percent higher than it was just one year earlier. The last issue of Realty Digest reproduced a piece by a Barron's reporter about this market, suggesting that it might be fun to investigate further the luxury co-ops and apartments for sale. It was! But some of the prices, predictably, seemed fantastically out of synch with reality. Even at such lofty levels, it is hard to grasp that the volume of 211 luxury sales in the third quarter alone amounted to $951,574,763, the fourth highest total on record. That's close to $1 billion (with a "b"). Thus, luxury properties will account for close to $4 billion (again, with a "b") of real estate changing hands this year in Manhattan. It is hardly surprising that a lot of people in the Big Apple have a lot of money to spend on living the luxury life, making themselves comfortable and impressing their friends. After all, this is the city where more hedge funds are managed than anywhere else. It's the place where envy often becomes a way of life, where practically no one has enough money to buy the most expensive of everything an individual might covet. What do the buyers of "statement apartments" get for their bucks? Let's take a look at some properties being offered by various brokers in the last few weeks:
Remodeling
Report
Does
It Pay? Depends.
Prices for most remodeling projects continue to climb, while the recoup value of improvements at resale is declining to levels last seen in 2002. These are the findings of Remodeling magazine's 19th annual Cost vs. Value Report - the eighth prepared in cooperation with Realtor magazine. Unsurprisingly, this year's recoup values confirm the housing slowdown that many parts of the country are experiencing. With both home-sale and remodeling activity at record levels in the last five to six years, some cooling is inevitable. When comparing cost estimates for actual projects, remember that averaging tends to have a leveling effect on "Job Cost" data, says Kermit Baker, director of the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University, in his introduction to the report. And, seemingly small differences in size, scope, or quality of finishes can dramatically affect the final project cost. Remember, too, that even in neighborhoods in the same city, local conditions can affect both the cost and value of a remodeling project, making the numbers below appear too high or too low. In an actual real estate transaction, the "cost recouped" for a given remodeling project depends on a variety of factors. These include the condition of the rest of the house, the value of nearby similar properties and the rate at which property values are changing in the surrounding area. A home's urban, suburban, or rural setting also affects its value, as does the availability and cost of new and existing homes in the immediate vicinity. The unusually strong housing market over the past few years has boosted both remodeling and new-construction activity. For many home owners, the appreciation in house prices significantly added to their net worth. Similarly, home improvement projects often paid for themselves through a comparable increase in the home's value. But every good thing must come to an end. Eventually, things return to normal. Luckily, today's "normal" is great news for home owners: When you consider its value at resale, a home improvement project costs only 20 cents to 25 cents on the dollar. The other 75 cents to 80 cents spent on a project goes directly back into the home through increased value - not to mention increased owner enjoyment, notes Baker. Following are some of the findings, which include estimates (now possibly outdated) of resale value from more than 2,000 members of the National Association of Realtors: Bathroom The specs for the job are to update an existing 5-b6-7-foot bathroom by replacing fixtures with a 30-by-60-inch porcelain-on-steel tub as well as adding 4-b-4-inch ceramic tile surround, a new single-level temperature and pressure-balanced shower control, standard white toilet, solid-white vanity counter with integral double sink, recessed medicine cabinet with light, ceramic tile floor and vinyl wallpaper. In New York City, the job cost is said to be $16,837 (versus $12,918 on average nationally); the resale value would be $16,550, a 98.3 percent return. In D.C., the cost is $12,633, with $11,298 on resale, or 89.4 percent of the expense. Kitchen This project is to update a 200-square-foot kitchen that has a functional layout by adding 30 linear feet of cabinetry and countertops. The cabinet boxes would be left in place, but the fronts would be replaced with new raised-panel wood doors and drawers, as well as new hardware. There would be replacement of wall oven and cooktop with new energy-efficient models and of laminate countertops with material of equal quality. Also included would be installation of a midpriced sink and faucet, additional of wall covering and repainting of trim. Resilient flooring would be removed and replaced with similar flooring. In New York City, the cost of this minor remodeling would be $20,365 (as opposed to $17,928 nationally on average), with resale value said to be $20,885, a 102.6 percent return on the investment. In D.C., the cost is pegged at $17,781; resale would be $16,856 to recoup 94.8 percent. Home Office Specs are to convert an existing 12-by-12-foot room to a home office by installing custom cabinets to include 20 linear feet of a laminated desktop, computer workstation and wall cabinet storage. The room would be rewired for additional phone lines and outlets to accommodate a computer, fax machine and other electronic equipment. Installation of outlets for cable and telephone lines would occur. Also, the project would include drywalling interior as needed, painting trim, and installing commercial-grade carpeting. In New York City, the job cost would be $23,930 ($20,057 nationally), and resale would produce $17,655, or 73.8 percent. In D.C., the cost would be $19,612, with resale bringing $16,216, or 82.7 percent. The Future Market Signs
of the Times Our nation's housing markets have been in a slump since late last year. Existing-home sales are projected to fall by about 9 percent this year. New home sales are expected to fall by almost 17 percent. But take heart - the worst may be over. As we enter the new year, further contraction in the housing industry may be limited. The signs are out there - but you need to look. The pace of existing-home sales appears to be close bottoming out - resales have hovered around 6.3 million annualized units during the past several months. We'll need to wait for at least two more months of data before confirming that we have hit bottom. But year-over-year pending sales for existing homes are improving, from a 16 percent drop in July to a 13 percent drop in August to an 11 percent drop in September. More encouraging news: new home sales actually posted positive growth during the past two months. Home inventories are also improving. The supply of both existing and new homes fell during the past two months. The supply of existing homes has topped out at 7.3 months, while the supply for new homes fell from 7.1 months in July to 6.4 months in September. Other housing measures also suggest that the industry's downturn may be over. The Mortgage Bankers Association's index of mortgage purchase applications has stabilized within the 380 to 400 range. Home price appreciation has turned negative the past two months. And, while that may sound like bad news it may actually be a welcome development, forcing sellers to show some flexibility and bringing buyers back to the market. With household wages and incomes rising and home prices falling, housing affordability measures are improving. The NAR Housing Affordability Index has moved up in September to 108 compared with 100 in July. So why should the doomsayers of housing - those who are predicting a prolonged contraction and a tumbling of home prices - believe that the housing contraction of 2006 is almost near its end? The answer lies in the attitudes of households. The current contraction has to do with household confidence, or rather, lack thereof. Previous housing downturns were driven more by households' financial wherewithal to purchase a home. For instance the last two housing contractions (1979-1981 and 1989-1991) occurred against an economic backdrop of job losses, negative GDP growth (a recession), and double-digit mortgage rates. Simply stated, households did not have the wherewithal to purchase homes, even if they wanted to. Today's housing contraction has more to do with negative household confidence, and home prices rising to unaffordable levels. It won't be surprising to see home sales bottom out after a year of slowing. During this past year, affordability measures improved. With every home price drop, there is a buyer who was standing on the sidelines and is now willing to get back into the home-buying market. There are also marginal home buyers who now qualify to purchase a home because of falling prices. Further, our growing economy is creating jobs and wage/income gains. With every job creation and every wage/income gain, housing affordability improves for that waiting-on-the-sidelines home-buyer household. So over time, there are market forces that are working to improve affordability, thus permitting households to buy homes. This is why the 2006 housing contraction is almost over. Of course, it's not going to be all roses and sunshine. There are a number of metropolitan areas that will continue to experience some pain well after the national housing market contraction ends. I estimate that 26 percent of our markets will continue to contract in 2007. These are the hottest boom markets of the past five years that are cooling the fastest. (I guess the bigger they are, the harder they fall applies.) As you would expect, they are the usual suspects: California, southern and middle Florida, resort locations sprinkled down the east coast, Washington, DC, New York, Boston, Nevada and Arizona. Some of these markets will correct sooner than will others. The length of time for each market's correction and how far prices need to fall for that correction to be complete depends on some local market measures - local job creation, the median home price, net migration, affordability and the share of second-home buying. I expect most of these markets to fully correct by the second half of next year. But there may be some markets that may experience contraction well into 2008. Still, we should
put all of this into perspective. The real estate boom of 2002-2005 was
unprecedented. The industry flew higher than it ever did. The plane needs
to land and refuel in order to take off again. New Listings Some of Manhattan's Latest Listings Below are just a few of the newest
listings of condominiums and cooperatives put on the market by various
brokers. 580 Park Ave - 5A, New York, NY 10021 306 Mott St - PHA, New York, NY 10012 860 Fifth Ave - 2E, NEW YORK, NY 10021 514 West End Ave - 3B, NEW YORK, NY 10024 130 Barrow St - 406, NEW YORK, NY 10014
130 Water St - 12D, NEW YORK, NY 10005 450 W 17th St - 1219, NEW YORK, NY 10011 310 E 46th St - 6K, NEW YORK, NY 10017 To see photos, more information and scores of other listings by brokers throughout New York City and Long Island, please visit our website at http://www.ServiceYouCanTrust.com, then click on the appropriate area. To view details of a particular property listed above you will need to note the address. Click Here to Sign Up For Your Free Issue of Realty Digest!
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