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Items of Interest The Soothsayers (With more than you want to know about subprime lending) SHOCKING! ECONOMISTS DISAGREE ABOUT SUBPRIME TURMOIL: Most economic forecasters in a new WSJ.com survey believe recent turmoil in the subprime mortgage market is likely to spread to the broader mortgage market, and they expect a widely followed index of home prices to fall this year. But they still think the U.S. will avoid a recession and even a significant rise in unemployment. "The markets may have over-reacted," said John Lonski of Moody's Investors Service. "Only businesses significantly exposed to subprime will be hurt. Mortgage repayment problems aren't as widespread as we are led to believe. If most people were having trouble paying the mortgage, it would lead to declining consumer confidence and we haven't seen that." Of the 60 economists surveyed, 32 said it is either "very" or "somewhat" likely that the intense and speedy unraveling of the market for subprime mortgages will spill over to the rest of the mortgage market. But 26 said that's not likely. Two didn't respond. (Too busy crunching numbers apparently.) Just 22 percent said difficulties in the subprime market have caused them to downgrade their economic forecasts and, by a 4-to-1 margin, they agreed that "the worst of the housing bust is behind us." The extent of any spillover from subprime to the broader housing market remains unclear. "You can tell a lot of scary stories," said Richard DeKaser of National City Corp., "but they're not broadly accurate. We're still talking about a small segment of the nation's homes that are affected." The subprime concerns are also likely to weigh on prices, according to Lonski: "Home sellers will be forced to accept lower prices in the spring. The subprime issue reinforces that home prices would be subject to price recession, creating an expectation of lower prices among buyers." Economists' expectations for home prices dropped from the previous survey. On average, they see a 0.77 percent decline in prices in 2007 compared with their forecast in a survey last month for a 0.44 percent decline. Of the 55 economists who answered the question, 34 predicted prices will be flat or will decline. The index, which tracks price changes in repeat sales or refinancings on the same properties, has never posted a year-to-year decline. SAY SOME ANALYSTS, LENDING PROBLEMS GO BEYOND SUBPRIME: In fact, the tightening of loan underwriting standards now under way is likely to push demand for homes down 15 percent and depress prices by 5 percent this year, according to analysts who follow the stocks of major home builders for Banc of America Securities (BAS). They said in a new report that there's already an excess supply of 800,000 existing homes on the market, and another 300,000 will soon be added to inventories through foreclosure. "We expect loans with a combination of low FICO scores and high (loan-to-value ratios) will end or tighten with many buyers choosing to remain as renters," wrote BAS analyst Daniel Oppenheim. BAS is a subsidiary of Bank of America Corp. The mortgages most likely to disappear are those with loan-to-value ratios of 98 percent or more and with FICO scores of 680 or less. Those loans, which accounted for 12 percent of home purchases in 2006 and 77 percent of delinquencies, "likely won't be seen again for some time," Oppenheim predicted. AND THAT'S NOT ALL: The subprime lending debacle could come home to roost in your neighborhood in the form of reduced demand, sluggish appreciation or declining prices, one economist told the Wall Street Journal. Dr. Christian Weller, senior economist at the Center for American Progress, a Washington-based think tank, suggested that the rise in foreclosures of subprime loans will have widespread impact on consumers and the broader economy. During a radio interview with Chuck Jaffe, MarketWatch senior columnist, Weller said that subprime lending woes have much bigger implications than simply hurting the mortgage business; with the subprime business drying up, there will be fewer first-time home buyers, which slows all other housing activity. Weller compared the situation to the game "Jenga," where blocks are stacked up in a tower, and said it's as if the bottom blocks had been removed. The result could be the long-forecast "pop" of the real estate "bubble." Averred Weller: "For 2007, it's a safe bet to assume the value of your home won't increase. And people should be worried that if they have to sell, they won't be able to." One positive to come from the situation is that it could create "buying opportunities," where consumers with strong credit can buy houses at a cheaper price than in the recent past and at mortgage rates that are competitive. NAHB IS CALLING THIS A 'YEAR IN TRANSITION': While most housing markets throughout the country experienced a year of decline in 2006, 2007 is expected to be a year of transition, according the National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) Regional Housing Starts Forecast. The earlier boom in housing can be attributed largely to excess demand generated by historically low interest rates coupled with aggressive mortgage lending practices. "Because the boom and correction cycle has largely been driven by national rather than local factors, most regions have experienced some degree of over-heating and correction," said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. "We expect 2007 to be a time of transition in most regions, with housing starts bottoming out in the early part of the year before transitioning to gradual recovery paths." According to the NAHB forecast, housing markets with the biggest booms in 2004 and 2005 are generally expected to be the slowest to return to normal levels of activity and those that showed more restraint will be the first to show growth. This and That THREE'S NOT ONLY COMPANY, IT'S POTENTIALLY PRAGMATIC: San Francisco home buyers are side-stepping high prices by banding together to buy an entire building as TICs, or tenants in common, says Kiplinger's Personal Finance magazine in Realtor magazine. As a result, the price of each housing unit will be about $100,000-250,000 less than it would be if the buyers had each purchased a single apartment. Mortgages for these kinds of ventures can be pricey - usually at least 1 to 1.5 percentage points higher than the buyers would pay if they were financing a standard condo. But the cost per square foot is so much lower that they come out ahead. A binding legal agreement divides up the living spaces and describes what happens if a partner wants to sell. After all, the owners must share a mortgage. Observers say the idea is likely to spread to other pricey cities around the country, especially if institutional investors have the option to buy packages of TIC loans - a change that would lower mortgage rates. 'NO, NO, I WON'T GO,' SOME PROTEST MORE OFTEN: Three in 10 employees who turned down relocation did so because of housing and mortgage concerns, according to a 2006 survey by Atlas World Group, reports USA Today in Realtor magazine. And 46 percent of companies say recruiting employees is becoming more difficult as the housing market cools, according to a 2006 survey by Prudential Relocation. "It's becoming more and more of an issue. They don't want to sell their homes at a loss," says Mardi Montague, director of talent acquisition at Petco Animal Supplies. "It's (a) huge (cost) for us to supplement this for them, and savvy candidates are asking about (relocation benefits) on the front end. That hasn't been a question before." Yet, even as it becomes more difficult for employees to move, many companies are cutting their compensation for corporate moves. The percentage of firms offering full reimbursement for a relocation declined significantly: 69 percent of employers offered full reimbursement of relocation expenses for transferees in 2005 compared with 58 percent in 2006, according to the 2006 Atlas survey. START PACKING: If you're looking for a low cost of living and good job prospects, check out the latest list created for MSN Real Estate by Bert Sperling of Sperling's Best Places. The 10 affordable job venues also offer good quality of life, Sperling says, and residents don't have to make a mint to afford a house. So he says. At the top of the list is Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Ark.-Mo., where the median home price in the three-city area averaged $212,300 in January 2007. That's for a three- to four-bedroom home with as much as 2,000 square feet of living space, says a Fayetteville broker. His list includes other hot spots - for example, Alabama, Idaho and North Dakota, where Fargo was in 10th place. Which tells you everything. ARE THE DAYS OF McMANSIONS NUMBERED: Most boomers will partially or fully retire in the next two decades, and as their lifestyle slows down, so will their desire for the huge houses that the wealthier of them have been snapping up in the past few years, speculates the Boston Globe. Many will have the idea of unloading those houses - which means the number of McMansions for sale is about to get super-sized. But who's going to buy? Generation X, a.k.a. the baby bust, is largely uninterested in sprawling suburban homes. And there aren't nearly as many Xers as there are boomers. There just won't be enough potential buyers unless the Xers and the older members of Generation Y are joined by a flood of new immigrants who both want the boomers' houses and are able to pay for them. If that doesn't happen, prices at the high end will sink. This is "a godsend" for those in that small group of future buyers, says Harvard University economist Ed Glaeser. Across the country, they'll be able to snatch up big houses for relative steals compared with what they'd pay today. But boomers who are counting on cashing in their real estate to fund their retirement may be in trouble, because their houses almost certainly won't fetch their current prices. Home and Hearth FROM THE DEPARTMENT OF CONSPICUOUS CONSUMPTION: There are backyard Jacuzzis, backyard pergolas, and eight-burner stoves built into backyard kitchens, says the New York Times. Now homebuyers of large means, and the landscapers who serve them, find themselves facing the latest in outdoor home accessorizing: the backyard fireplace. No humble pits-in-the-ground, these. The new breed of outdoor fireplace has evolved rapidly from a stone chimney, about 10 feet tall, and a starting price of around $8,000. In the last 18 months they have begun to sprout refrigerators, surround-sound stereo systems, and fireboxes to display lumber that is rarely actually burned because most homeowners prefer the convenience of gas. What they don't have is rooms surrounding them. The amenities and the costs grow apace. A contractor in the San Francisco area, Tony Bertotti, built an $80,000 fireplace as the centerpiece of a $750,000 patio that was recently named best landscape in the state by the California Landscape Contractors Association. In California - unthinkable! "All of a sudden, outdoor fireplaces have become the really hot thing," said Larry Rohlfes, the association's assistant executive director. In a national survey of 600 people in households earning $75,000 or more, StandPoint, a marketing researcher, found that 16 percent have a fire installation like a fire pit or fireplace in their backyards. So . . . if you can't stand the heat, go into the kitchen. HERE'S A TOUCHY, BUT NOT FEELY, APPROACH TO SMUDGES: For touch-up work on a wall, use a sponge paint pad, rather than a brush, because a brush is likely to leave a shiny streak, says Deborah Zimmer of the Paint Quality Institute, an organization run by the Rohm and Haas Co., which makes acrylics for paint, notes the Washington Post. Dab on the paint, taking care not to use too much. Feather out the edges of the new paint so it goes from standard thickness over scuffs or other marks to virtually nothing farther away. Wait to judge the success of your efforts. Water-based paint dries to the touch fairly quickly, but the finish changes chemically for a long time after that. Wait a full 24 hours before you evaluate whether the touch-ups are so noticeable that you want to invest more time in achieving a better finish. If you opt to do more, paint the whole wall, but just that wall. Don't fret about whether the new paint will match what's on adjacent walls. Light bounces off each wall differently, so even with identical paint, they'd look slightly different anyway. WITH STICKS YOU WON'T GET EGGROLL: With organic food surging in popularity, retailers are now taking the concept beyond the grocery aisle, observes the Wall Street Journal. A flurry of companies is pitching organic furniture, linens, cosmetics - even so-called organic leather. Williams-Sonoma Inc.'s Pottery Barn is rolling out a new line of duvets, sheets and towels made with organic cotton this spring. Furniture and textile designer Q Collection will soon introduce a line of organic bedding for children. Retailer Gaiam has even added organic cotton shower curtains to its product line. The U.S. Department of Agriculture requires that product fibers like cotton or wool that are labeled "organic" be produced without the use of most conventional pesticides or synthetic fertilizers. However, the department doesn't regulate how these textiles are processed. So, consumers could find a chair made with organically grown cotton, but the chair could be treated with a chemical dye or flame-retardant. The Organic Trade Association has standards for textile handling and processing - which ban things substances such as toxic dyes - but the guidelines are voluntary. Another term frequently used to sell everything from furniture to flooring is "sustainable." According to Jerry DeWitt, director of the Leopold Center for Sustainable Agriculture at Iowa State University in Ames, the term "sustainable" is generally defined as a production method that provides a long-term profit for the producer, protects natural resources and has positive social impact. But ultimately, he says, "sustainability is in the eyes of the beholder. You don't have a litmus test." The words "natural" and "green" can also fluster consumers. Textiles made from 100 percent natural cotton often mean that no dyes or chemicals were added to the cotton, but it doesn't guarantee the cotton was grown without the use of pesticides or other chemicals. The organic trend has gone beyond textiles, with some companies pitching so-called organic or sustainable leather. Q Collection offers a chair made with leather from free-range cattle that is treated with vegetable dyes and isn't processed with heavy metals. Organic Leather, a new company in Mill Valley, Calif., - where else? - sells everything from bed headboards to leather bangle bracelets made from the hides of wild animals or those raised to produce organic meat, says founder Rowan Gabrielle. BE GOOD TO YOUR GRANITE: Granite sealers are easy to work with, notes the Washington Post. As with any specialty product, always read and follow the instructions. The directions for many granite sealers tell you to apply them to dry granite. This is very important. Be aware of what "dry" means; it doesn't mean you can clean the countertop and then dry it with a paper towel. Water from cleaning can seep into the granite. If water is in the small cracks, fissures and spaces between the crystals, the sealer can't penetrate into the granite. Clean the granite and let it sit for 24 hours, or allow a fan to blow across the granite for eight hours. Wet granite has a richer color than dry granite, so wait for the granite to get that faded look before opening the sealer. Once the sealer is dry, buff it with an old terry-cloth towel. These rough cloths do a fantastic job of making the granite shine. Do not use a mechanical buffer unless you know what you are doing. You can ruin the granite. If you do use a buffing machine, make sure it is an orbital one just like the ones used by auto-body repair shops. SOMETHING THERE IS THAT DOES, IN FACT, LOVE A WALL: The soaring art market is creating a new architectural niche, observes the Wall Street Journal: Private collectors are hiring brand-name museum and gallery architects to design homes to showcase their outsize Damien Hirst sculptures and Matthew Barney installations. The projects run the gamut from revamping existing spaces to building new residences from the ground up and can include all of the trappings of professional-grade museums - soaring ceilings, high-tech temperature and humidity controls and state-of-the-art lighting systems. Richard Gluckman designed the Museum of Contemporary Art San Diego and the Deutsche Guggenheim in Berlin, so the architect wasn't surprised when he was recently commissioned to create a new home for works by Julian Schnabel, Jeff Koons and Jean-Michel Basquiat. What was unusual was the venue: a backyard barn. After the 9,800-square-foot structure is transformed, at a cost of more than $1 million, it will serve as a private gallery for newsprint manufacturing executive Peter Brant and his wife, former model Stephanie Seymour. While architects in general may charge a lump sum for a design or bill by the hour, museum specialists, like other top designers, typically collect a 15-25 percent commission on the total cost of a residential project. SOME HOMEOWNERS ARE TRIMMING RENOVATION GOALS: With home prices stagnant or dropping in many neighborhoods, homeowners are being more careful about how much they spend to improve their homes, experts say, according to the Washington Post. "There has been some softening at the upper end of the renovation market" because price escalation has stopped and home equity loan interest rates have jumped, said Kermit Baker, project director of the Remodeling Futures Program at Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies. "People are worried about over-investing in their neighborhood." Added Baker: "People are looking at more mid-range projects rather than the top-shelf items and focusing on more routine replacement." Mid-range projects have a "higher payback than upper-end renovations," he said. The Big Apple ANOREXIC BUILDINGS ARE REAPPEARING: The sliver building is making a comeback in Midtown, reports the New York Times. The version that Ismael Leyva has designed will soon soar above Eighth Avenue and West 48th Street like a bird made of blue glass, with narrow balconies rising 42 stories high along the neck. "When developers are forced to deal with small sites, we architects have to come up with clever solutions to make the building more efficient and economically feasible," said Leyva. "We have to shape the building to maximize the use of space, create drama with dynamic solutions." The project, being developed by Esplanade Capital, a New York real estate and investment company, calls for 122 condominiums. Using air rights from several adjacent properties and being built on an irregularly shaped lot, the structure is scheduled to be completed in mid-2008. The city's limits on sliver buildings apply to structures in residential zoning districts with street fronts of 45 feet or less. A review of building dimensions in property tax records shows two 20-story buildings with only 25 feet of street frontage in Midtown but no other building as tall as this new project with as little street frontage. Jay Eisenstadt, who runs Esplanade with his partner, David Scharf, said he was aware of other projects being planned on relatively narrow lots in Manhattan, and he noted that other very tall condominiums have been built or are being built along Eighth Avenue. GOOD-BYE, GOOD LUCK, GOOD SOURCE OF EXTRA $$$: Also known as a transfer fee, a flip tax is an amount of money paid to the building upon the sale of an apartment, usually by the seller but occasionally by the buyer, notes the New York Times. Although flip taxes are almost always imposed as a way of avoiding a building-wide assessment or an increase in monthly maintenance or common charges, they are never very popular with apartment owners. "It seems that more and more buildings are considering imposing them," said Bruce A. Cholst, a Manhattan co-op and condo lawyer. "And I think the reason is because many buildings are getting hit hard by Local Law 11 I work, energy costs and increases in basic operating costs." Since a building that needs money will have to raise it somehow, Cholst said, many boards feel more comfortable collecting it from people who are leaving than from those who are staying. A flip tax can be imposed by a building's board without having to obtain the approval of the shareholders if the authority is provided in the proprietary lease or offering plan. It can be a flat fee, or it can be calculated as a dollar amount based on the number of shares allocated to the apartment by the co-op corporation or as a percentage of the sale price or net profit. Flip taxes can also be based upon the length of time the seller has owned the apartment, with higher fees typically being imposed on those who have owned their apartments for shorter time periods. One lawyer added that a number of recent court decisions seem to indicate the courts will allow flip taxes to be imposed in condominiums. But to do that, the condo would probably have to amend its bylaws. Boldface NICE IT IS, BUT NO WORK OF ART: Claude Ruiz-Picasso, the only surviving son of you know who, has bought a sprawling prewar duplex apartment at 33 West 67th Street for $3.25 million, property records show, according to the New York Times. His mother is Françoise Gilot-Salk, a French artist who was the artist's companion for about a decade. In the closing documents, Ruiz-Picasso gave his current address in care of his mother in the building next door, 27 West 67th Street, a famous co-op built in 1903 with double-height north-facing studios specifically for artists, on the site of old stables. His new apartment has a living room with 17-foot ceilings and a sold price of $3.25 million sales price, 15 percent below the original asking price last August. HARGITAY DOESN'T ALWAYS WIN: A beautiful sex-crime detective on prime-time TV has chopped the price of her Tribeca penthouse duplex to $5.95 million, says New York Observer. It was listed last month for $545,000 more. "It's really cocoon-like in there, but it's really colorful," Mariska Hargitay, of Law & Order: Special Victims Unit, said about the library, her favorite room in the apartment. Upstairs is a private roof deck. "I lie out in the sun, have parties," she told The Observer. "For me, coming from California, I needed light." (She also comes from bombshell lineage: Jayne Mansfield is her mother.) Sadly, though, the apartment overlooks, along with Hudson Square, the car-loop leading to the Holland Tunnel, instead of the Hudson River. As compensation, the ground-floor garage belongs solely to the penthouse. "It's like Batman," Hargitay said: "You pull in, and there's only room for one car!" Yet Ms. Hargitay, actor-husband Peter Hermann and their young son won't be staying around. We just need a little more room; the family's getting bigger," she said. TREAT WITHOUT A TRICK: Treat Williams has sold the Manhattan apartment that he's owned for 30 years, says the New York Post. The actor of stage and screen is getting $1 million more than his asking price of $4.75 million, according to a well-placed source. The six-room, 2,700-square-foot prewar co-op at 78th Street and Amsterdam Avenue includes four bedrooms, three baths, a large terrace, gourmet kitchen and a wood-burning fireplace. JON BON JOVI IS ON THE MOVE: The singer is about to become one of SoHo's newest residents after finally signing a contract to buy a "trophy penthouse" at the New Museum building on Mercer Street for $26 million, according to the New York Post. The place is a 10-room, 7,400-square-foot duplex loft, for which he paid half a million less than the asking price in a bidding war. Bon Jovi, his wife Dorothea and their kids will soon have the run of the place, which features six bedrooms, six baths plus two powder rooms, enormous public rooms, 12-foot floor-to-ceiling windows, three terraces, two kitchens, a gym and two wood-burning fireplaces. TODAY SHOW PERSONALITY (SUCH AS HERS IS) IRKS NEIGHBORS: Ann Curry has been hit with a fourth lawsuit over the ongoing construction on her West 71st Street townhouse, which has driven neighbors nuts for years, reports the New York Post. Nick and Gino Presta, who own the building next door, claim that dangerous, unsafe, illegal work at Curry's brownstone has put their tenants at risk and caused one 25-year tenant to move out after 12 months of jack-hammering. "We were bombarded with complaints from tenants of excessive noise and dust, 7 a.m. start times, illegal weekend work and safety fears," said Nick Presta. A spokeswoman for Curry had no comment. The Market FEBRUARY NEW-HOME SALES PROVE TO BE DISAPPOINTING: Sales of new single-family homes fell 3.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 848,000, the lowest level since August of 2000, according to the U.S. Commerce Department. The February fall-off followed downward revisions to the sales rates for the three previous months and shocked Wall Street, which eventually recovered. "Lending standards apparently are tightening not only in the subprime market but in other components of mortgage lending as well, and this is creating tremendous uncertainties regarding the near-term outlook for home sales and housing production," said Chief Economist David Seiders of the National Association of Home Builders 9NAHB). "The Federal Reserve's recent statement that there is an ongoing adjustment in the housing sector appears right on target." IT'S NOT ONE MARKET ANYWHERE: Jonathan J. Miller, chief executive of the New York-based real estate appraisal and consulting firm Miller Samuel Inc. tells the New York Times that, in New York, "we're finding bidding wars in some markets and prices dropping in others." Judging by local data supplied by brokers, it seems that the national housing slump has struck hardest in the middle. And in Manhattan, the weak middle has been in the range of $2 million to $4 million. Prices of apartments in that range fell an average of 7 percent in November 2006, compared with the previous November. During the same period, the average price of apartments costing more than $10 million rose by 5 percent and of those under $1 million, more than 8 percent. "Weakness in the market has been concentrated in certain segments," agrees Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Economy.com. "We're not witnessing the entire housing market in metro areas caving in." So why is the middle taking the blow? Perhaps because those factors that appear to be causing the slump - overbuilding and concerns about affordability - have weighed most heavily on that sector. Demand in the middle-price tiers has been supported by historically low interest rates and resulting high affordability, but not by significant gains in income. As rates began their rise and affordability began to decrease, the demand for housing in the middle price range began to fall. Prices at the top, by contrast, have been driven by changes in wealth. Fueled by a boom in investment income, low taxes and demand from wealthy foreign buyers, the high end of the housing market has continued to experience strong price gains. "That's the market where we're seeing bidding wars," Miller says. AN INDEX THAT LAGS SALES SHOWS FALLING PRICES: U.S. home prices continued to fall in January, with prices in 10 major cities now down 0.7 percent year-over-year, according to Standard & Poor's and MacroMarkets, which released the January Case-Shiller price indexes, reports the Wall Street Journal. The 10-city index is down 0.7 percent in the past year, the first year-over-year negative reading since 1996. The 20-city index (which is not nationally representative) is down 0.2 percent year-over-year. A year ago, prices were rising 15 percent. "The annual declines in the composites are a good indicator of the dire state of the U.S. residential real estate market," said perennial "bubble" backer Robert J. Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets. "We look for price declines in the bubble regions but flat prices nationally," wrote Michelle Meyer, an economist for Lehman Bros. Goldman Sachs economists said they expect prices to fall 5 percent in 2007 compared with 2006. The 10-city Case-Shiller index turned negative in mid-1990 and remained negative for much of the next three years. Prices did not return to the peak seen in October 1989 until January 1998. Home prices fell from December to January in 17 of the 20 cities; only Miami showed any price gains. Prices were flat in Charlotte, N.C., and Seattle. Prices were falling fastest in January in San Diego, down 1.7 percent, or a 22.4 percent annual rate. Prices dropped 1.1 percent in Los Angeles, or a 14 percent annual rate. HOUSING STARTS UP BUT PERMITS DOWN: Housing starts rebounded 9.0 percent in February following a 14.3 percent drop the month before, according to the Commerce Department. The pace of construction increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.525 million units for the month, but was down 28.5 percent from a year earlier. Construction of new single-family homes was up 10.3 percent, following an 11.2 percent drop in January. Permits, a less volatile measure of housing construction activity, were issued at a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.532 million units, down 2.5 percent for the month and off 28.6 percent from a year earlier. "Shifting weather conditions have created a lot of month-to-month volatility in both housing starts and building permits during recent months," said Chief Economist David Seiders of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). "The trend lines are still slightly downward, although we probably are now approaching a bottom in the market." He added that NAHB's forecast shows a gradual increase in housing starts beginning in the second quarter of this year "although we expect that total to be down about 17 percent from 2006." EXISTING-HOME SALES POST 'SURPRISING' GAINS: Sales of previously owned homes rose strongly in February, reaching the highest level since last April, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Total existing-home sales - including single-family, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops - rose 3.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.69 million units in February, though the total was 3.6 percent below the pace in February 2006. Still, last month's increase was the biggest monthly rise in three years. Commented David Lereah, NAR's chief economist: "Some of the rise in home sales may be from mild weather that brought out shoppers in December, but fundamentals have improved in the housing market and buyers see a window now with historically-low mortgage interest rates and competitive pricing by sellers. Even so, winter storms last month discouraged shopping, and buyers were chilled with the third coldest February on record. These unusual weather patterns mean home sales that close in March may decline before rebounding later this spring." The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $212,800 in February, down 1.3 percent from one year earlier, when the median was $215,700. As for total inventory, it went up 5.9 percent at the end of February, a 6.7-month supply at the current sales pace compared with a 6.6-month supply in January. Raw inventories peaked last July at 3.86 million, and supplies topped at 7.4 months in October. Single-family home sales grew by 3.7 percent from January, but those sales numbers are 3.4 percent below February 2006. The median existing single-family home price was $211,100 in February, down 1.5 percent from a year ago. At the same time, existing condo and co-op activity jumped 5.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 810,000 units over January's level while falling 5.2 percent below February last year. The median existing condo price was $225,400 in February, up 0.5 percent from a year earlier. Research BUILDERS ARE JITTERY, BUT THAT'S HARDLY SURPRISING: Builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes receded in March, largely on concerns about deepening problems in the subprime mortgage arena, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). After rising fairly steadily since its recent low last September, the HMI declined three points from a downwardly revised 39 reading in February to 36 in March. "Builders are uncertain about the consequences of tightening mortgage lending standards for their home sales down the line, and some are already seeing effects of the subprime shakeout on current sales activity," said Chief Economist David Seiders of the National Association of Home Builders. Yet, he adds: "NAHB continues to forecast modest improvements in home sales during the balance of 2007, although the problems in the mortgage market increase the degree of uncertainty surrounding our baseline (i.e., most probable) forecast." ANOTHER STUDY, ANOTHER CHANCE TO BE CONFUSED: Fourth-quarter home prices declined in 23 percent of metro areas included in a new study, while the total number of overvalued housing units dropped, reports Inman News. Prepared by economic information company Global Insight and financial holding company National City Corp., the study showed that 72 of 317 metro areas studied experienced price declines in the fourth quarter, up from 65 metro areas with price declines in third-quarter 2006. Metro areas studied in the report account for 77 percent of existing single-family housing units and 86 percent of related real estate value. The study is based on a historical evaluation of house prices, interest rates, household income, and population densities, among other data. In California, 21 of 26 metro areas included in the study had negative appreciation rates in the fourth quarter. Ten of 18 reported metro areas in Florida had price declines, and a total of 29 states were home to one or more metro areas that experienced price drops compared to the third quarter. "Home-price appreciation continued to be strongest in those parts of the country that came late to the explosion in home prices - the interior and northern parts of the West, including northern Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Washington and Oregon," Global Insight and National City reported. The study identifies 57 metro areas as overvalued in the fourth quarter, compared with 60 overvalued metro areas in the third quarter. Markets with valuation premiums above 35 percent were deemed at risk for price corrections, based on the typical degree of overvaluation that preceded local market price declines observed since 1985, according the study announcement. "Nearly all markets posted a decline in the level of overvaluation, which signals that the overall housing market is beginning to trend back to more normal price growth," said Jeannine Cataldi, senior economist and manager of Global Insight's Real Estate Service. YOU DON'T WANT TO GO THERE: St. Louis has been judged the most dangerous city in the United States, according to a survey released Monday by Morgan Quitno Press, an independent research publisher in Lawrence, Kansas (which evidently is not very neighborly), reports CNNMoney. The Missouri city, with a crime rate of 2,405.5 crimes per 100,000 residents, just nosed out Detroit (2,357.6). Morgan Quitno compared all cities with populations of more than 75,000 to come up with its list of the most dangerous. The survey analyzed FBI statistics for 49 states and the District of Columbia. (Illinois was omitted because the state's rape case data do not match the FBI's.) The survey compared rates for six major crimes - murder, rape, robbery, assault, burglary and auto theft - with national averages. The safest city in the country, according to the survey, was Brick Township, N.J., with just 55.9 incidents per 100,000. New York City was nowhere to be found. LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN SINGLE-PARENT HOUSEHOLDS: The percentage of households headed by single parents showed little variation from 1994 through 2006, at about 9 percent, up from 5 percent in 1970, according to the latest data on America's families and households from the U.S. Census Bureau. There were 12.9 million one-parent families in 2006 - 10.4 million single-mother families and 2.5 million single-father families. Just over two-thirds (67 percent) of the nation's 73.7 million children younger than 18 lived with two married parents in 2006. Also in 2006, there were an estimated 5.8 million stay-at-home parents - 5.6 million mothers and 159,000 fathers. Other findings: Average household size in 2006 was 2.57 people, down from 3.14 in 1970; slightly more than one in four households (26 percent) consisted of a person living alone in 2006, up from 17 percent in 1970; about 5.7 million children, or 8 percent of the total, lived in a household that included a grandparent in 2006; and among the 13 million children 15 to 17, about 2.3 million were working, of whom 2.2 million worked part time; in 2006. Tax Tip JOB-RELATED MOVING EXPENSES ARE DEDUCTIBLE: Jackson Hewitt Tax Service says you probably can claim moving costs that were incurred within a one-year period from the date of your first day of work at the new location. If you moved to a new city and then found a new job, you may also be able to claim deductions, provided that you began working within a one-year time frame following the move. The new location must be at least 50 miles farther from your former home than your old job location was from your former home. Deductible costs include packing, crating, and transporting household goods and personal effects. Also deductible: storing and insuring items within any period of 30 consecutive days after the items are moved from your former home and before they are delivered to your new home. And you can deduct the cost of connecting or disconnecting utilities and shipping your car and your household pets to a new home. The Mortgage Biz RATES REMAIN FAVORABLE: The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) was unchanged at 6.16 percent for the week, says Freddie Mac. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.35 percent. The 15-year FRM this week was 5.86 percent, down from last week's 5.90 percent and last year's 6.00 percent. Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 5.88 percent, down from 5.91 percent the previous week. A year ago, the average was 6.02 percent. One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs were 5.43 percent, up from last week's 5.40 percent but lower than 5.51 a year earlier. "Recent data releases sent conflicting signals about the direction of the housing market," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. "The rise in existing home sales in February to a 6.69 million unit pace, the highest level since last April, offered some hope of firming in housing demand. In contrast, February's new home sales fell unexpectedly to 848,000 units, the slowest pace since June 2000, suggesting that more time will be needed before a housing recovery takes place. Despite concerns about possible spillovers from the troubles in the subprime market, rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages remained stable." THE STATE OF OHIO IS ACTING AGAINST FORECLOSURES: Having had the highest foreclosure rate in the nation at the end of last year, Ohio plans to issue $100 million in taxable municipal bonds next month to help homeowners refinance mortgages, says Bloomberg News in the New York Times. Proceeds of the bond issue by the Ohio Housing Finance Agency will finance 1,000 loans with a fixed rate of 6.75 percent, said Robert Connell, director of debt management at the agency. "We believe that it is incumbent on this agency to do something to assist these folks to enable them to keep their homes," Connell said. "A $100 million bond from this agency is not going to solve Ohio's foreclosure problem. We hope to at least make a dent." LOAN APPLICATIONS EDGE DOWN: For the week ended March 23, volume dipped by 0.2 percent on an unadjusted and seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, says the Mortgage Bankers Association. Unadjusted, application volume was up 16.6 percent compared with the same week one year earlier. Refinancings decreased 0.5 percent from the previous week, while purchases increased 0.1 percent. The refinance share of mortgage activity slipped to 45.1 percent of total applications from 45.3 percent the previous week, while the adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share decreased to 20.2 from 20.9 percent. Out and About Yorkville: Canyons, Convenience and Old World Culture Perhaps because gentrification started in Yorkville decades ago, before there was even a word for the concept, the neighborhood seems to have developed resilience. In the face of the growth and development that have blurred the line between Yorkville and the Upper East Side, the area seems determined to redefine itself. So says the New York Times, from which the neighborhood's description is shamelessly taken. Developers have marched the traditional northern border from 86th Street to 96th Street by convincing potential residents that the extra 10 blocks is the glitzier upper Upper East Side. Residents can quickly enumerate Yorkville's virtues: the mix of people, the convenience of having ''everything at your fingertips'' and, especially, the pockets of Old World culture that survive from the time decades ago when the neighborhood was a lively blue-collar community dominated by residents of German background. The German presence in Yorkville dates to the late 18th century, when immigrants from that country settled near what is now 86th Street. In the early 19th century, wealthy New York families, including several of German descent, established country estates in the area; later in the century, the estates yielded to urbanization and were gridded into city blocks. German families then moved uptown from the Lower East Side, and in the peak years of European immigration, Yorkville became the destination for waves of immigrants, including central Europeans and Irish as well as Germans. Yorkville's decline as a distinct enclave began with postwar real estate development on the East Side and was speeded greatly by the 1956 razing of the Third Avenue elevated train tracks, which removed a demarcation point between Yorkville and the silk stocking district to the west. The latest wave of development has inspired resistance by community advocates to what they describe as the ''canyonization'' of the area's avenues with high-rises out of proportion to the neighborhood's scale. But it remains a neighborhood with an uncommonly wide range of restaurants, bars and food shops, among other diversions beyond gustatory. Within
Yorkville's blocks lie the following three apartments that recently went
on the market.
Elsewhere in Manhattan, here are some of the properties seen since our last issue and offered by various brokers:
Manhattan
Market Report 1997-2006 Manhattan
Market Report 1997 -2006 The Manhattan market saw record prices in all major price categories
Inventory
leveled off as demand improved
Days on Market and listing discount expanded
Co-op Market All
price indicators set record Inventory
decreased, demand approached prior year levels
Condo
Market
All
price indicators set record Number
of sales jumped as inventory eased
Luxury Market (upper 10% of all sales)
Loft Market
New
Listings Some of Manhattan's Latest Listings Below
are just a few of the newest listings of condominiums and cooperatives
put on the market by various brokers. 1601
Third Ave - 16G, NEW YORK, NY, 10128 575
Park Ave - 1009, NEW YORK, NY, 10021 7
Lexington Ave - 9A, NEW YORK, NY, 10010 420
W 25th St - 1A, NEW YORK, NY, 10001 70
Little West St - 4E, NEW YORK, NY, 10280 470
Park Ave - 2A, NEW YORK, NY, 10022 1361
Madison Ave - 7B, NEW YORK, NY, 10128 246
W 17th St - 3E, NEW YORK, NY, 10011 120
W 72nd St - 5A, NEW YORK, NY, 10023 146
W 57th St - 76AB, NEW YORK, NY, 10019 To see photos, more information and scores of other listings by brokers throughout New York City and Long Island, please visit our website at http://www.ServiceYouCanTrust.com, then click on the appropriate area. To view details of a particular property listed above you will need to note the address. Click Here to Sign Up For Your Free Issue of Realty Digest!
Contact Information email: info@ServiceYouCanTrust.com
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2007 Service You Can Trust |
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